Australia’s fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.48 — and Melbourne is leading the decline. Housing costs, childcare bills and a government that has spent years obsessing over gender ideology instead of helping families are all driving the baby bust.
Australians had 23,000 fewer babies in 2024 than in 2018 — even as the population grew by two million. Victoria’s capital is at the sharp edge of that collapse. Melbourne’s fertility rate now sits well below the national average, and KPMG research confirms that rising rents, mortgage repayments and childcare costs in the capital cities are putting a handbrake on people’s plans to start or grow their family. One in four Australians under 45 say they will not have children at all. Among those who do intend to become parents, most say they will have smaller families than they once hoped.
“For many families, the reality is they can only afford a two-bedroom home. That directly shapes how many children they can contemplate. … One child in a two-bedroom apartment makes sense; three would be challenging. And when you’re staring down a big mortgage or high rent, it can be hard to feel comfortable having more kids.”
Terry Rawnsley, KPMG Urban Economist [The Age, 28 May 2026]
This is not an accident. It is the predictable result of a decade of policy failure. Under the Allan government, Victoria’s housing crisis has deepened, the state has accumulated a $160 billion debt, energy prices have soared, and the Department of Education has spent years focused on gender ideology in classrooms rather than ensuring Victorian children — and their parents — have a future worth investing in.
“Victorian families are not failing to have children because they don’t want them. They are failing to have children because this government has made it too expensive, too stressful, and too uncertain to say yes.”
Family First has a plan. Our policies target the four barriers that research consistently identifies as the real reasons Victorians are choosing smaller families: housing affordability, the cost of raising children, energy bills that eat into family budgets, and a culture of government that has lost sight of the family as the foundation of society.
“If you want more Victorian babies, give Victorian families a home they can afford, an energy bill that doesn’t terrify them, and a government that is on their side. Family First will do all three.”
The survey data is unambiguous. The cost of raising children is the top barrier to family formation. Housing is the second. Among those who stopped at one child, 48 per cent said they simply ran out of time — often because the financial pressure of buying a home delayed their start. Among those who will have no children at all, 42 per cent cited the cost of children directly.
“When I talk to young couples across Victoria, I hear the same thing again and again: we want children, we just can’t make it work. They’re not asking for much. A house big enough for a family. Energy bills they can afford. Confidence in the future. The Allan government has taken all of that away. Family First will give it back.”
“A civilisation that stops having children has given up on its future. Victoria has not given up. The families I speak to are hopeful — they just need a government that is hopeful with them. That’s what Family First is.”
—
