Consumer confidence: inflation expectations decline to a two-year low

Consumer confidence was broadly unchanged last week, falling just 0.5pts. The four-week moving average declined 0.3pts.

‘Weekly inflation expectations’ fell 0.1ppt to4.8%, and the four-week moving average dipped to 4.9%.

The financial conditions subindices declined. ‘Current financial conditions’ fell by 0.6pts and ‘Future financial conditions’ dropped 3.8pts after rising 4.4pts the week before.

‘Short term economic confidence’ (about the economic outlook over the next 12 months) was mostly stable. ‘Medium term economic confidence’ (about the economic outlook over the next five years) rose 0.9pts.

The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex gained 0.8pts.

ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk said: “ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was broadly unchanged last week. Meanwhile, inflation expectations fell to their lowest level since February 2022. This is likely to be welcomed by the RBA, given the Board’s focus on inflation expectations remaining anchored.

Confidence amongst households paying off a mortgage declined 6.4pts to its lowest level this year, despite expectations the RBA will keep the cash rate on hold today. Confidence amongst renters remains weak, declining 1.8pts. The situation is a little better for those who own their home outright, with confidence rising 5.5pts.”

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