8 November 2021
Modelling and research from the Doherty Institute was released today by National Cabinet.
Chief Minister Michael Gunner said the modelling showed the Northern Territory was on track to become one of the very few places in the world to succeed in supressing Covid-19 long enough to get vaccination rates up so the health system could cope once the virus arrives.
The modelling shows that at 80% fully vaccinated over age 16 – which the Territory will hit in the next few days – the NT’s health system could handle 30-100 Covid cases a day. The predicted peak ICU demand under such a scenario is six beds at any one time. It shows that we can cope within existing capacity.
This scenario is with low level public health measures (PHSM) and partial test, trace, isolate and quarantine (TTIQ) measures.
Specific modelling was also undertaken for remote communities by the Doherty Institute.
Subsequently, Doherty has set a higher benchmark for all remote communities and homelands – with the 80% double dosed target moving to people aged FIVE and over.
This will only occur once we have a TGA approved vaccination for children aged 5-11.
As a result, the Territory Government will introduce additional public health measures to reduce the risk of COVID incursion for remote communities.
There are already several public health measures in all communities, including a mandate that any workers going into any remote communities must have their first dose by November 12 and second dose by December 24.
From Monday, November 15 any worker or resident who enters a remote community (with a first dose vaccination under 70%) from Darwin, Alice Springs, Katherine or a location outside of the Territory, must wear a mask for seven days at all times in public.
In addition, from Friday November 19, any worker or resident entering a remote community (with first dose vaccination under 70%) from Darwin, Alice Springs, Katherine or a location outside of the Territory, will have to receive a negative rapid antigen test within 72 hours of entering a community.
The mask mandate and the rapid antigen direction will apply to 25 of 52 communities managed by NT Health, and the 29 ACCHO controlled communities in the Northern Territory – who have yet to disclose their vaccination status to the NT Government.
These measures go to reducing the risk of incursion of COVID into a remote community, and reducing the transmission risk if the virus gets in.
The Land Councils, AMSANT and others are being briefed on the Doherty modelling.
Quotes from Chief Minister Michael Gunner:
“From the very start of this global pandemic the Territory’s strategy has been aggressive suppression of the virus.
“We did this to allow ourselves enough time to make sure our existing health system could cope. And it can.
“At 80% fully vaxxed – which we will be imminently – our health system can handle 30-100 cases of Covid a day.
“However we have many communities that are well below 80% and we still have a critical task ahead of us to push these rates up, which we will continue to do.
“Everyone in every remote community has had a chance to be vaccinated and we will keep working to get them to choose getting vaccinated.
“This is and always will be the best public health measure.”
Northern Territory Government
