We are heading into another men’s AFL football season, accompanied by inevitable footy tipping competitions. And this year our data scientists are again seeking people to test their footy tipping skills with the power of probability.
Developed by Associate Professor David Dowe from the Faculty of Information Technology, the Probabilistic Footy Tipping Competition has been challenging footy tipping enthusiasts every men’s AFL season since 1995.
In a traditional tipping competition, the tipper is forced to choose one team as the outright winner.
The probabilistic competition involves the tipper entering a probability, between 0 and 1, of each team winning the match.
“Choosing a probability allows the tipper to express their uncertainty or confidence level in the outcome,” Associate Professor Dowe explained.
“If you attach a very high probability to your favourite team winning and the team actually wins you gain corresponding points but if they lose you score higher penalties through negative points.
“If you take a big risk in your tips, like saying you are 99 per cent sure and you are wrong, then the scoring system really stings you.
“Try to be realistic about how sure you are, put in a considered probability and in the long run you will do well.”
The competition is free to enter and all are welcome to participate.
“We have had people from all walks of life participate in previous competitions. It is an interesting way to understand how the uses of probability can play out in practical situations. And this scoring system can actually be applied to any and every sport played across the world,” Associate Professor Dowe said.
The researchers are keen to expand the Probabilistic Footy Tipping Competition to cover the AFL women’s fixtures as well.
Associate Professor David Dowe is
