National weather forecast: A blocking high sets up in the Tasman Sea

BOM

A blocking high sets up in the Tasman Sea on Friday, October 16th. G’day from the Bureau. David here to take a look with you at the weather around the country for tomorrow.

And the main feature is going to be this blocking high in the Tasman Sea. You can see it centred near Tasmania on Friday. It’s going to remain pretty much in that spot for the next several days. And that means really consistent weather for eastern and central Australia.

It means showers and thunderstorms connected to the inland trough through Queensland, but also through parts of New South Wales and the NT. It means cool weather with coastal showers for New South Wales and Queensland. Mostly, it means really settled and increasingly warm weather for South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania over the next several days, starting from Friday.

And then in the west, weather will be a little bit different. A ridge of high pressure will keep things mild to warm and pretty settled on Friday.

Let’s take a look around the grounds now, starting with Queensland, where in the early morning we’ll see some rain and potentially thunderstorms, which could bring heavy rain from about Emerald down through Roma and towards St George. So west of the ranges, there could be some heavy rain in the early morning.

Some of that rain will spread across the south-east coast in westerly winds, and then also underneath that, we’ll see showers right along the east coast in those easterly onshore winds. There could be a little heavier rain around Mackay and the Central Coast, so rainfall totals could accumulate a bit there.

Then in the afternoon, we’ll see more showers and storms develop along the inland trough, a little further west of what we see in the morning. So out towards Longreach and Mount Isa in the north-west of Queensland there.

It’s quite a cool day, with temperatures 4 °C to 8 °C below average right along the east coast and through all this cloud cover and rainy weather inland. So Brisbane going for a shower or two and a top of 22 °C.

Quite cool conditions through Roma, Toowoomba, well below average out there and up the east coast as well. Moving down to New South Wales and the ACT.

We’ll see more of that heavy rain in the morning, particularly out around Walgett and Brewarrina that sort of area. Could see a thunderstorm warning in the early hours of Friday morning.

Plenty of showers along the coast as well in that easterly flow that I mentioned, and then a few showers later in the day out in western New South Wales, connected to that trough, but most of them won’t generate too much rainfall.

Drier further south, a top of 18 °C for Canberra. Possible shower, but a mostly dry day there. Sydney, a shower or two and a top of 21 °C.

In Victoria, we’re getting into that nicer weather now, so mild conditions, really pleasant in Victoria, plenty of sunshine, around 23 °C the top in Melbourne, and you can see temperatures across Victoria generally in the low to mid 20s.

Plenty of sunshine, turning partly cloudy in the afternoon as some of that moisture starts to come down from Queensland. One or two showers, maybe around the Mallee and the Wimmera, but again, not much in those.

For Tasmania, really starting to warm up as well, as that high pressure system starts to dominate. Hobart, a sunny top of 23 °C, quite warm temperatures in southern Tasmania, and that’s only going to get warmer over the next few days.

A little milder in the north, where there’s a bit more cloud cover and the winds are coming off Bass Strait there.

In South Australia, plenty of warm and dry conditions for the majority of the state. Adelaide going for a mostly sunny top of 25 °C, and you can see temperatures generally in the mid 20s through much of South Australia.

There will be some rain around in the early morning through the north-west pastoral district that will clear out into the Northern Territory during the daytime hours.

In Western Australia, there’s been plenty of rain around on Thursday, but Friday sees a very different story. A ridge of high pressure extends right across southern Western Australia, so mild to warm conditions, north-westerly winds, plenty of sunshine is the order of the day tomorrow.

You can see a top of 23 °C for Perth, warming up inland, with Kalgoorlie getting to 33 °C. So temperatures nudging into the low 30s further inland, with the winds turning around to the north-west.

And for the Northern Territory, lastly, you see that rain come through in the morning and sort of extend east across the Simpson District and around Alice Springs during the day tomorrow. So a top of 31 °C there, possible thunderstorm in Alice Springs, but not expecting anything like what we saw on Monday there.

Showers and thunderstorms extend across most of the territory during the afternoon and up into the Kimberley as well, where it is increasingly getting really hot, with temperatures nudging 40 °C in inland parts of the Kimberley and the Northern Territory at times.

Darwin going for a top of 35 °C. Mostly sunny, slight chance of a storm in the afternoon, but more likely to be a little further south or inland of Darwin later tomorrow.

That’s all we’ve got for you for now. You can always find the latest warnings and forecasts on our website, our app, and follow us on social media for more. Thanks for watching. We’ll see you next time.

Video current: 12:00 pm AEDT Thursday 15/10/26.

/Bureau of Meteorology Public Release. View in full here.