Key Facts:
* Nearly half a million Australians could be living in at-risk tenancies.
* Research is based on Australasia’s only tenancy sustainment survey of property managers.
* Early intervention pathways, demonstrated via the PM Assist online referral portal, have proven effective in sustaining tenancies to prevent homelessness.
New research from the Tenancy Skills Institute reveals nearly half a million Australians could be living in at-risk tenancies, on the brink of failure in the private rental market, according to data from its 2026 research paper.
The research paper, entitled “Two Tides of Homelessness: Can we change course from surging to receding tides?”, includes data from Australasia’s only tenancy sustainment survey of property managers who collectively manage over 125,000 tenancies.
The data uncovers an alarming rise in at-risk tenancies in the last twelve months, and is gathered from 327 Australasian property managers surveyed by the Tenancy Skills Institute between March 2026 – July 2026.
It seeks to understand property managers’ valuable insights into the risk of households exiting the private rental market into homelessness and how to engage the real estate profession in early intervention to sustain tenancies.
Survey partners include the peak real estate industry bodies of REIA, REINZ, REIACT, REIQ, REISA, REINT, REIT, REIV, REIWA and real estate industry leaders of Cloudstaff, Mitchell PT and MRI Software.
Key Findings
- 268 Australian property managers surveyed identified nearly 6,000 of the 90,000 tenancies they manage are at risk of failing in the Australian private rental market. This suggests nearly half a million Australians could be living in at-risk tenancies, which is 115,000 more people than in the same survey last year.
- Over 50% of the primary contributing factors putting tenancies at risk of failure could be resolved with early intervention using a well-designed contemporary rental subsidy scheme. This underscores the urgent need for a co-ordinated national homelessness prevention and early intervention strategy.
- Northern Territory (14.05%), Western Australia (13.02%) and Queensland (7.10%*) are the Australian localities with the highest number of at-risk tenancies in 2026 as identified by local property managers. * Queensland data is an average and includes early intervention data, which significantly improves the average.
- Tasmania (2.45%) has the lowest number of at-risk tenancies in 2026, as identified by local property managers.
- Queensland Early Intervention Case Study highlights that a reduction in at-risk tenancies of nearly two-thirds can be achieved when early intervention strategies via PM Assist are implemented (from 9.64% to 3.40%).
- So far, PM Assist, the Tenancy Skills Institute’s online referral portal, has facilitated the referral of over 700 tenancies (and over 1,500 people) to support since its inception in February 2024.
- One community organisation reports 90% of tenancies they have supported via PM Assist referrals have been sustained: 50 households in just over six months.
- In the last 12 months, Australian property managers found that over 50% of 2,770 failed tenancies could have been saved if the right supports had been in place and the issues that caused their failure had been rectified. From survey responses alone, this is an estimated 3,500 people who exited failed tenancies in Australia who need not have and may have avoided experiencing housing insecurity and potential homelessness.
A brief overview of data is attached. Read the full 2026 research paper here.
Attributable Quotes
Quotes from Mr Paul Tommasini, CEO, Tenancy Skills Institute:
“Our 2026 research paper provides insights into the alarming scale of tenancies at risk of failing in the private rental market right now. A challenge that lies before us, as homelessness services, as government and as a community.”
“We believe this level of risk isn’t the failing of individual services, or the community sector; instead, it is the result of broader systemic failings. It is the result of a lack of connection between the real estate industry that can identify the issue early and the community sector that holds the keys to solving it.”
“We’re at a crossroads of choices: accept the status quo, or create a system and the conditions that allow the community sector and the real estate industry to closely partner, each bringing our unique skills and insights to work together to end homelessness.”
“Our award-winning online referral portal PM Assist creates this vital connection between the two sectors and in its infancy has already sustained tenancies keeping over 1,500 people with a roof over their head who might otherwise be knocking on the door of specialist homelessness services.”
Quotes from Mr Jacob Caine, President, Real Estate Institute of Australia:
“Property managers are often among the first to see the warning signs, and to bear the weight of administering the collapse of tenancy and the emotional toll it extracts. They should not be expected to become social workers, but with the right relationships, training and simple referral tools, they can provide a vital connection between a renter in difficulty and the specialist services equipped to help.”
“Early intervention is therefore about much more than avoiding arrears or reducing pressure on the homelessness system. It is an opportunity to preserve a home, protect a family’s stability and give someone the breathing space to regain control of their life. This research reminds us that when we sustain a tenancy, we may also be protecting a person’s health, employment, education, relationships and future.”
Quotes from Associate Professor David MacKenzie, CEO, Upstream Australia: “What this report ultimately makes clear is that the missing piece is not more goodwill, and probably not even more services. Property managers already know where the risk is.”
“Building that tenancy maintenance infrastructure and funding it as core sector business rather than as a pilot or a limited capability is now one of the best and immediate opportunities available to reduce the number of Australians and New Zealanders who will turn up in the homelessness counts in the 2031 and 2036 Census.”
