Author
- Michelle Grattan
Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
There are just seven weeks to go before the Victorian election on November 28. Labor is trying to beat the odds to do something it’s never achieved in the state before: after 12 years in power, it’s trying to win its fourth straight term.
But was Labor’s third change of premier this term – from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll in July – too late to make any difference?
On today’s special election podcast, we’re joined by the Victorian premier, as well as Opposition Leader Jess Wilson and One Nation’s state Deputy Leader, Colleen Harkin.
The result is being closely watched around Australia, particularly as a test of One Nation’s strength.
The election result remains surprisingly unpredictable, as Tony Barry – a former senior Liberal staffer turned director of polling and political consultancy firm Redbridge – explains.
Why it’s still too close to call
Barry said “there is a massive mood for change in Victoria”, with about 75% of Victorians saying the state is heading in the wrong direction.
Even after the leadership change from Allan to Carroll, Barry said there’s been no lift on Labor’s vote.
On a vote share basis, we have not picked up any improvement in Labor’s vote. That’s not to say that might [not] improve over the next seven weeks. But these decisions are always a risk versus reward proposition.
Jacinta Allan’s numbers were terminal. She was in the net -42 on personal favourability. To give you a sense of how bad that is, Donald Trump is net -59 in Australia […] Net -42 was catastrophic.
[…] I get the sense in focus groups that they’ve just moved on from the Labor party. It’s all too little, too late. It’s almost like, to use an analogy, like a divorcing couple and the husband at the last minute promises to make all these changes. And the wife’s not buying it. It’s that kind of vibe in the focus groups right now.
But while “there’s very little love for the government and they’re polling at around 25% primary vote”, Barry said the Coalition will have to overcome Labor’s significant electoral buffer.
The Labor government can afford to lose 11 seats, but they’ll still be a majority government. They’ll still have 45 seats – 45 being majority. So that gives them a lot of room to play around with.
Now, oppositions have won this sort of quantum of seats in the past. [The Liberals’] Jeff Kennett did when he first came to power. But the important thing to note when Jeffrey did it, he only needed about three or four seats to win majority. Campaigns are, at its core, an allocation of resources. They only had to really allocate resources to win three seats, and they won about 18, 19, from memory.
[…] So whilst I think all indications are Jess Wilson will be the next premier, with an 11 seat buffer, we wouldn’t write off Labor just yet.
Carroll: ‘it’s never been done before’
Victoria’s Premier, Ben Carroll, was only installed in late July, after his predecessor Allan abruptly resigned .
He’s dealing with a complicated Labor legacy, from COVID lockdowns, to high debt and allegations of Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) corruption on Big Build projects – now the subject of a royal commission .
On state versus federal issues, Carroll said some national issues are having an impact on Labor’s support in Victoria.
Look, there’s no doubt that some of the federal government’s changes around housing and investment are resonating. There’s no doubt that the rising interest rates are resonating.
Carroll admitted he’s behind at the moment, but declared “we’re coming home”.
It’s never been done before, a fourth election victory for Labor in Victoria. I believe we are behind, but we’re coming home: 121 new schools, 12 new hospitals, 100 level crossings removed. Best NAPLAN results. Highest paid nurses, highest paid teachers. Free dental. Bringing our road maintenance back in house. Integrity, law and order, financial responsibility. A strong state where workers and less fortunate are brought along. That’s the Labor way.
He insisted he would “throw back the keys” rather than do a deal with the Greens to form minority government – and challenged the opposition to do the same rather than deal with One Nation.
I’m very clear. There’ll be no deals with the Greens. They are a party of protest.
Wilson: ‘repairing the budget is the most important thing’
Despite Labor’s uphill battle to hang onto power, that doesn’t guarantee an easy victory for Opposition Leader Jess Wilson.
To win majority government, she will have to pick up 16 seats. Local memories are still fresh of Liberal Party instability, highlighted during the Moira Deeming saga. And Wilson is also under challenge from the rise of One Nation.
Wilson is currently shadow treasurer, as well as opposition leader. How long would that continue if she became premier?
The reason why I took on the role of shadow treasurer, and will continue to hold the role of treasurer in government, I’ve said that we will deliver a economic update within our first 100 days. And then thereafter look to hand over the portfolio of treasurer.
[…] Why I see [being treasurer as] so important in those initial days of government is because repairing the budget is the most important thing we can do in this state to deliver everything else that Victorians need.
Wilson also forecast a shake-up to the Victorian public service.
It was the former ombudsman here in Victoria that spoke about the politicisation of the public service. And I think all Victorians have seen our public service grow over the past decade, and at the same time we have not seen our services improve here in Victoria.
[…] We will make machinery of government changes to implement our agenda. But we’ve also announced a hiring freeze on back office public servants […] so that we can see the public service be recalibrated in its size to 2014-15 levels, adjusted for population growth, to reflect the fact that the public service here in Victoria has grown at 60% over the past decade, while population growth has only been 19%.
Harkin: One Nation ‘will work with anybody to remove Labor’
Pollster Tony Barry noted Victoria has traditionally being One Nation’s weakest state, though its recent support in the polls has stayed “fairly consistent”.
Even if there were campaign controversies, Barry said it was hard to see the party winning less than 15% of the vote statewide, predicting:
[One Nation] will come first or second in a few seats. But I don’t think it’s going to be as many as people think. I think they’ll perform better at a federal level. We’re yet to see how their campaign will play out, and campaigns still matter.
But One Nation’s Victorian Deputy Leader, Colleen Harkin, said her party wants to win government in its own right.
Harkin, a one-time federal Liberal candidate, recently quit the Liberals after decades of membership to join Pauline Hanson’s party.
She said her values and attitudes hadn’t changed; instead, the Liberal Party had.
Over the years of being involved in the Liberal Party, I was increasingly concerned with their lack of commitment to core principles [… and] with their policy decisions. And it was really death by a thousand cuts.
[…] It was actually my son who made a comment one night that I got off the phone from speaking on some policy thing, very frustrated. And he said to me, ‘I don’t know why you keep doing it, Mum, because you’ve been saying forever they don’t stand for anything you do’. And it took me a couple of weeks to process that. And I eventually sort of went, ‘you know, he’s right […] I haven’t changed, they have’.
She said One Nation was prepared to work with a minority Coalition government if need be, in exchange for policy outcomes.
We will work with anybody to remove the Labor government. Labor is our enemy, if you like that word, and the Coalition is our competitor. If they end up being in government, and needing our support, we would definitely have issues that we would be asking or demanding in return for confidence and supply. But our aim is to win ourselves.
