Retail sales rebound in January, but underlying growth is stalling

Australian retail turnover rose 1.1 per cent (seasonally adjusted) in January 2024, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

This follows a fall of 2.1 per cent in December 2023 and a rise of 1.5 per cent in November 2023.

Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: “The rebound in January follows a sharp fall in December when consumers pulled back on spending after taking advantage of Black Friday sales in November. Retail turnover is now back at a similar level to September 2023.

“Retail turnover was unchanged in trend terms in January. This means there has been no growth in retail turnover when we look through the volatility of the past few months.

“Rather, spending patterns have shifted because of changes in seasonality around Black Friday as consumers took advantage of discounting in response to cost of living pressures.”

Trend estimates from March 2020 to June 2022 are not available due to the degree of disruption and volatility caused by COVID-19. Trend estimates throughout the pandemic period are likely to be unhelpful and potentially misleading for users in interpreting underlying trend in retail activity.

Turnover rebounded in all the non-food industries following last month’s falls. Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (2.4 per cent) had the largest rise.

This was followed by household goods retailing (2.3 per cent) and department stores (1.7 per cent). Other retailing (1.7 per cent) also rose and was the only non-food industry to see a larger rise in January than fall in turnover in December (-0.5 per cent).

For food-related industries, cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services turnover rose 1.3 per cent following four consecutive monthly falls.

“Spending in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services was boosted this month by large sporting events lifting turnover more than usual. Bumper crowds for the Australian tennis summer and the Big Bash League boosted sales in catering services, which are part of this industry,” Mr Dorber said.

Food retailing (-0.1 per cent) was the only industry to fall after having been the only one to see a rise last month.

Retail turnover rose across the country, with most jurisdictions up by 1.0 per cent or more following many large falls in December. Tasmania was the only exception, rising 1.3 per cent after a flat December.