Severe weather update: Rain, storms, flooding for central and SE Aus

A low pressure system brings rain, storms and possible flooding to large parts of the country over the next few days. G’day, David here from the Bureau with an update on the severe weather expected across large parts of central, eastern and south-eastern Australia over the next three days or so. In terms of impacts that we can expect to see, further riverine flooding across northern Victoria in particular.

Possible flash flooding from moderate to heavy rainfall totals in various parts of the country, and the first real springtime severe thunderstorm outbreak possible for eastern Australia. Let’s take a look at the current situation to start with. And the eye is drawn to this low pressure system here on the west coast of South Australia near Ceduna.

That’s extending plenty of rain through the eastern half of South Australia and up into the Territory around Alice Springs as well. And then looking ahead, let’s look at the big picture to start with. And then we’ll hone in on some details, expecting to see this low pressure system move towards Adelaide later tonight.

It’s also extending plenty of rain across the eastern states, which will spread further east during Tuesday. The focus tonight and early Tuesday is around Adelaide and the Hills in particular, and then the focus later on Tuesday morning moves to the north-east Victorian ranges and the southern slopes of New South Wales, where heavy rainfall is possible. And then on Tuesday afternoon, this trough is going to act as the focus for an outbreak of thunderstorms, some of them possibly severe through a large part of eastern Australia.

And then later on Tuesday and into Wednesday, the focus moves north to northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, where rain will be more welcome. It’s been quite a dry winter there so far and then later on Wednesday you see the system move offshore into the Tasman Sea. It’s replaced by this high pressure system, so the weather will settle down across the south-east for the second half of this week.

Let’s zoom in to South Australia and particularly the south-east of South Australia now. And as the low pressure system moves from the west coast down towards Adelaide tonight, we’ll see really healthy rainfall totals accumulate right across the agricultural areas of South Australia. Now we’re keeping an eye on where exactly this low pressure system is going to move, because some parts of the Eyre Peninsula, the Yorke Peninsula, Adelaide and the Hills could see 20 to 40 mm with some isolated higher totals.

Now, while that rainfall is not particularly heavy, this area is quite wet. It’s had a really good winter with several big rain events and so the area is quite wet. The catchments will respond quickly and there’s some risk of flash flooding even if the rain isn’t particularly heavy.

So this is the sort of area that we’re keeping an eye on somewhere through Eyre and York and then through Adelaide and the Hills late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Then as we move more properly into Tuesday morning, the focus then shifts to the north-east ranges of Victoria and southern New South Wales. Now these areas in the pink and magenta here could see 40 to 60 mm of rain, with again some isolated higher totals perhaps reaching 80 or 90 mm.

The heaviest rain is expected to be Tuesday morning. And again, catchments through this part of the country are really wet, so flash flooding is likely from any heavy rain, particularly about the north-east ranges of Victoria. Now, we do have a Severe Weather Warning current for these parts of the north-east Victorian ranges and up into southern New South Wales as well.

As I said, the heaviest rain early Tuesday morning, 50 to 60 mm possible in a six-hour period early Tuesday morning in this area. And as I mentioned again, catchments across northern Victoria are really wet following several big rainfall events this winter. We’ve got a couple of Flood Warnings already current in the green for the Kiewa, the Murray near Barham and the Avoca and the Loddon.

Those are from the rain that fell about 10 to 12 days ago. So they’re still in the system. And then a broader Flood Watch right across northern Victoria for the rain that is to come over the next day or two.

So as I said, catchments wet, ready to respond quickly to further rainfall. So it’s likely we’ll see further flood warnings issued over the next couple of days in these areas. Thunderstorms also in the mix during Tuesday.

This large yellow area all the way from central Victoria up to southern Queensland is the severe thunderstorm possible area for Tuesday. Now, heavy rain is the main risk with any thunderstorms that become severe during tomorrow, but storms through western New South Wales and up into southern Queensland could also produce damaging winds. One or 2 storms might even get strong enough to produce some large hail as well.

So this coming out of winter, this is probably the first real thunderstorm outbreak for eastern Australia, and a taste of what’s to come over the typical spring and summer thunderstorm season. So if you live in these parts of the country, keep a good eye on the radar over the next few days as this system moves east, and you can always find the latest warnings and forecasts on our website, on our app, and on our social media channels. Thanks for watching.

We’ll see you next time.