ABARES is forecasting the value of agricultural production to fall by 5% to $99.4 billion in 2026-27, or $105.6 when fisheries and forestry are included, a reflection of lower crop and livestock production and a decline in livestock prices.
Agricultural export value is also expected to fall 5% to $76.3 billion, or $80.8 billion including fisheries and forestry.
ABARES Acting Executive Director David Galeano said while the value of agricultural production was down from the record of $104.6 billion in 2025-26, there had been improvements to this year’s outlook over winter.
“Production in 2026-27 is expected to be supported by a wetter than expected winter in south-east Australia, and a smaller than anticipated impact on area planted and yields from high fertiliser prices,” he said.
“While the rainfall outlook for spring 2026 indicates large areas of eastern and southern Australia are expected to be drier than average, the advanced state of winter crops in the southeast and current stored soil moisture mean that crops will be less reliant on spring rainfall this year.”
Total crop production value is forecast to fall by 6% to $51.9 billion in 2026-27, reflecting an expected fall in winter crop production more than offsetting expected higher prices.
National winter crop production volume is expected to drop 12% in 2026-27 to 61 million tonnes, still the fourth largest crop on record. Meanwhile, national summer crop production is forecast to fall by 25% to 3.4 million tonnes in 2026-27, 11% below the 10-year average.
“Cropping conditions in winter have been very favourable in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales. This is expected to be more than offset by a return to longer-term average yields in Western Australia and poor seasonal conditions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.”
Livestock and livestock product gross value is forecast to fall by 3% to $47.5 billion in 2026-27.
“A lower value of cattle, sheep and pig slaughter is expected to outweigh increases in the value of milk, wool and poultry,” Mr Galeano said.
Falling revenue and continued high costs are expected to impact profits. Average broadacre farm business profit is expected to fall by 39% to $133,000 per farm in 2026-27, which is 6% above the 10-year average.
The ABARES September 2026 quarter Agricultural Commodities and Australian Crop reports can be viewed here: Agricultural outlook.
