Australia’s winter crop is set to come in down on last year’s bumper harvest, but still at historically-high production volumes, Rabobank says in its just-released 2026/27 Australian Winter Crop Forecast.
The specialist agribusiness bank estimates total winter crop volumes will reach 62.9 million tonnes. While 7.9 per cent down on last season’s harvest – which was the second largest on record – this would still be 2.6 per cent above the five-year average, Rabobank says.
Report lead author, RaboResearch senior grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia says this forecast reflects mixed production results across Australia this year, due to “sharply contrasting seasonal conditions”.
“Production is more concentrated in southern and western regions of the country this year,” he said. “Below-average rainfall across the northern east coast is expected to reduce output in Queensland and New South Wales. By contrast though, favourable moisture levels and strong yields are supporting production increases in South Australia and Victoria.
“For Western Australia, mixed seasonal conditions have driven year-on-year production declines, although the state’s output still remains above the historical average. And the WA cropping season has been marked by warmer-than-average conditions and minimal frost damage.”
Overall, Mr Pistoia said, declines in grain and oilseed production this year on the eastern seaboard – along with the nation’s overall lower wheat volumes – had failed to outweigh strong crops in South Australia and Victoria.
By commodity, wheat, barley and pulse production are all forecast to come in lower than last year, while canola volumes are set to increase.
Rabobank notes the 2026/27 crop forecast comes amid generally firmer grain prices – primarily due to geopolitical disruptions to global export availability. Although, it says, grower margins continue to be “compressed” by high fertiliser, diesel, agrichemical and freight costs.
Wheat
The nation’s growers are expected to deliver a total of 31 million tonnes of wheat to bins this harvest. This is 13.3 per cent down on last year and 9.7 per cent below the five-year average.
Mr Pistoia said a decline in wheat production in Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia this year will be partly offset by above-average production in South Australia and Victoria.
The price outlook for Australian wheat was currently being supported globally by Black Sea shipping disruptions and locally by the potential impacts of El Niño, the Rabobank report said.
“The global wheat market is moving into 2027 with adequate supply, but reliable export availability is becoming a price driver,” Mr Pistoia said. “Disruption to Black Sea ports and shipping routes has reduced wheat trade and increased maritime trade costs, despite combined Russian and Ukrainian production remaining above the five-year average.”
The report said this disruption improved Australia’s freight advantage into Asia, with the country’s much shorter sailing times. This should support local port prices relative to overseas benchmarks, Mr Pistoia said, while the local east-west supply imbalance may also encourage grain movements from WA and SA to eastern states livestock markets.
“El Niño has already influenced 2026/27 wheat production on the northern east coast and further impacts in 2027 could create the market separation that was seen between 2018 and 2020, when grain moved from WA and SA to eastern Australia to supply the livestock sector,” he said. “This points to a potentially stronger eastern Australian wheat basis in 2027.”
Barley
Rabobank forecasts Australia’s barley production to reach 16.5 million tonnes this harvest. While this represents a decline of 1.2 per cent on last year, it would still be 16.8 per cent above the five-year average, making it the country’s second-largest barley crop on record, Mr Pistoia said.
Abundant supply is likely to pressure barley prices at harvest, he noted, before exports support an expected recovery in quarter one next year.
“Higher US corn prices, lower European cereal production and global shipping disruptions are improving barley’s competitiveness as a feedgrain globally, he said. “And if the impacts of El Niño reduce east coast sorghum production in Australia and tighten domestic feed-grain supply, east coast barley prices could rise above international parity, allowing other Australian port zones to supply more of the country’s export program and improving price baseline.”
Canola
Going against the trend seen in other Australian winter crops this year, canola production is forecast to rise, and to record levels. Rabobank sees canola volumes increasing 5.3 per cent to 8.1 million tonnes, which would be 15.5 per cent above the five-year average.
Mr Pistoia said WA is set to account for 59 per cent of this season’s national canola output, supported by a 41 per cent increase in area planted to canola in that state.
The outlook for global oilseeds remained supportive of canola prices, he said. “Growth in global consumption of oilseeds is expected to outpace production,” Mr Pistoia said, “while stronger biofuel demand should reduce stocks and support canola prices.”
Pulses
Australian pulse production is projected to shrink 12.9 per cent on last year, to 5.5 million tonnes. This would still be 25.3 per cent above the five-year average, Rabobank said.
Overall, ample global supply of pulses was capping prices, Mr Pistoia said, however constraints in chickpea production – including a smaller Australian crop – supported a price premium over other pulses.
States
The biggest production declines in this year’s winter crops were being seen in Queensland, according to the Rabobank forecast, with volumes predicted to be down 47.6 per cent on last season, to 2.03 million tonnes. This was primarily driven by well-below-average rainfall across much of the state’s wheatbelt.
For New South Wales, there was a wide production divide seen between northern and southern cropping regions, with good growing-season rainfall having supported crop prospects across the eastern Riverina and Murray regions. Overall, the state’s winter crop is forecast to be down 26.3 per cent year-on-year at 13.52 million tonnes.
While total production is also forecast down in Western Australia – at 23.73 million tonnes, 13.3 per cent lower than last season – this would still be 3.6 per cent above the five-year average and potentially the fourth or fifth-largest crop on record for the state. “This continues to give Westen Australia the lead as the country’s largest canola producer,” Mr Pistoia said.
It has been a “season for the record books”, he said, when it comes to South Australia, where the 2026/27 crop could reach an all-time high – supported by the largest planted area on record and strong yields. The state’s total winter crop is estimated to come in at 12.44 million tonnes, up 43.7 per cent on last season. “Favourable growing-season rainfall lifted subsoil moisture above average and supported strong crop development, with limited frost damage providing further benefit,” Mr Pistoia said.
Victoria’s total winter crop production is also forecast to be up this season, to 11.21 million tonnes, 11.2 per cent above last year. Mr Pistoia said high yields were driving a “top tier” crop in the state, poised to rank alongside the largest in recent years.
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