Australia’s export-focused table grape industry is adapting to a rapidly-evolving global market, with stronger export values helping offset a smaller, weather-affected 2025/26 crop, Rabobank says in newly-published research.
The specialist agribusiness bank says Australian table grape growers faced adverse weather conditions during the 2025/26 season – particularly in the key Sunraysia production region – leading to lower production volumes and some quality challenges.
In the report, Table grape update 2026, the bank’s RaboResearch division says despite these headwinds, the Australian table grape sector achieved stronger export returns as it continued to diversify market opportunities.
RaboResearch senior analyst Michael Harvey said Australia remained heavily reliant on export markets, with domestic production continuing to significantly exceed local consumption requirements.
“The Australian table grape industry remains one of the nation’s most export-focused fresh produce sectors, with export markets critical to industry profitability and long-term growth,” he said.
“In the previous season, Australia produced close to 229,000 metric tonnes of table grapes and exported almost 150,000 metric tonnes, highlighting the importance of international demand for the sector.”
Mr Harvey said the 2025/26 season presented a different set of challenges, with weather conditions affecting fruit development and reducing export availability.
“Unfavourable weather conditions close to harvest in the Sunraysia region, which accounts for around 70 per cent of Australia’s table grape production, affected fruit development and led to lower volumes and some quality issues,” he said.
“However, what we saw this season was that lower export availability and changing market dynamics supported stronger export values, helping offset some of the production challenges experienced by growers.”
The report found Australian shipments to China and Hong Kong fell to their lowest level in 12 seasons during 2025/26, reflecting both reduced export availability and the industry’s efforts to diversify export destinations.
According to Mr Harvey, this diversification strategy continues to be an important part of the Australian sector’s long-term outlook.
“The declining share of exports to China and Hong Kong highlights the industry’s ongoing efforts to broaden its export portfolio and reduce dependence on any single market,” he said.
“This market diversification is becoming increasingly important as global trade patterns evolve, and competition intensifies across key destination markets.”
The report notes that the shift in export destinations contributed to stronger pricing outcomes, with Australia’s export value returning to average post-pandemic levels of USD 2.92 FOB per kilogram.
Global trade
Looking more broadly at the international market, the RaboResearch report highlights another year of expansion in global table grape trade, driven by growing exports from emerging suppliers and changing consumption patterns across major markets.
Report lead-author RaboResearch fresh produce senior analyst Gonzalo Salinas said global table grape exports are expected to reach a record 4.95 million metric tonnes in 2025/26, continuing a pattern of steady long-term growth.
“The global table grape sector continues to grow despite production challenges in several traditional exporting regions,” Mr Salinas said.
“We are seeing increasing volumes from countries such as Peru, South Africa and India reshape global supply patterns, while China has consolidated its position as the world’s largest exporter.”
China emerged as the world’s largest table grape exporter in 2025/26, shipping approximately 770,000 metric tonnes, although the report notes this rapid expansion has been accompanied by declining export unit values.
Mr Salinas said China’s growing production capacity and ability to supply grapes year-round were reshaping trade flows throughout Asia.
“We are now seeing the broader implications of China’s transition from a net importer to a net exporter,” he said.
“China’s growing export presence is supporting consumption growth in emerging Asian markets while also changing competitive dynamics for exporters around the world.”
On the demand side, global consumption of table grapes remains resilient across major destination markets. The report notes per-capita grape availability has remained relatively stable in mature markets such as the United States and European Union, while emerging markets in Asia continue to record gradual gains.
“While mature markets continue to provide a stable foundation for demand,” Mr Salinas said, “emerging markets with large populations are creating additional opportunities for exporters and helping support continued trade growth.”
The report also highlights strong growth in ASEAN (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Timor-Leste) markets, where imports have increased significantly in recent years. Since 2021, table grape imports into ASEAN countries have risen by 31 per cent, making the region one of the most attractive long-term growth opportunities for exporters.
RaboResearch Disclaimer: Please refer to Australian RaboResearch disclaimer here
