A team of scientists who developed Australia’s first operational long-range forecasts for unusually warm ocean temperatures have been awarded one of Australia’s most prestigious scientific prizes for environmental research.
The team, which includes Jason Hartog and Alistair Hobday (CSIRO) as well as Grant Smith and Claire Spillman (BoM), developed the work from 2020 to 2025 and last night received the 2026 Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water Eureka Prize for Environmental Research.
“This has been a great team effort, with complementary skills combining to undertake both the primary research and the delivery to end users,” said Dr Alistair Hobday, CSIRO Chief Research Scientist.
Marine heatwaves are a well-established cause of coral bleaching. They also contribute to biological disruptions affecting marine species, ecosystems and coastal communities – fish kills, species migrating out of their usual range, and extra pressure on endangered species.
The forecasts provide up to four months’ advance warning of ocean temperature extremes.
“The ocean is currently the warmest in over 100 years of measurements, and with the current El Niño underway, we are expecting strong marine heatwaves in many parts of the world, including off southeast Australia,” Dr Hobday said.
“Forecasting provides an opportunity to prepare or activate response plans several months in advance.”
The forecasts give marine industries, conservation managers and coastal communities weeks to months of warning, helping them to prepare early and protect vulnerable ecosystems.
“We hope that Australian conservation managers, fishes, aquaculture businesses, and tourism operators use these forecasts as part of their forward planning. We will be doing lots of engagement over the next couple of months, to make sure that Australia is as best prepared as possible.
The long-range marine heatwave outlooks are now a regular fixture over the Australian summer with forecasts made available publicly since the 2025-26 summer season.
They are available on the Bureau of Meteorology website . Following the release of these forecasts, most States have now developed response plans, which set out the actions to be taken when an event is forecast.
“Over the past five years, this project has shown how a strong relationship between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) can result in world-leading scientific breakthroughs,” Dr Hobday said.
“But it’s the connection we developed with the forecast users that has created the real-world impact and is also helping the long-range game – adapting to climate change.”
The Eureka Prize panel praised the research for its originality and significance, scientific rigour, and impact.
“Internationally, the project has positioned Australia as a world leader in marine heatwave forecasting and end user engagement,” the panel said.
“Agencies in New Zealand, the UK Met Office, and Singapore have expressed keen interest in adopting similar approaches. The team has addressed requests from Pacific meteorological services and media and been invited to present at major global forums and international conferences, which has boosted understanding for others working in related fields.
“The work has been profiled by the World Meteorological Organization, included in Australia’s State of the Climate reporting, and in the journal Science.”
