GDP Growth – Third quarter of 2022, OECD

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21 Nov 2022 – Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECDrose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2022, according to provisional estimates. Quarterly OECD growth rates have remained weak for the past three quarters.

Among G7 countries, GDP grew by 0.6% in the United States in Q3 2022 following contractions in the two previous quarters. GDP growth also increased in Germany (to 0.3%, compared with 0.1% in the previous quarter), but slowed in Italy (0.5%, compared with 1.1%), Canada (0.4%, compared with 0.8%) and France (0.2%, compared with 0.5%). GDP fell in Japan (by minus 0.3%, compared with growth of 1.1% in the previous quarter) and the United Kingdom(i) (by minus 0.2%, compared with growth of 0.2%) (Figure 1).

For the four G7 countries that have already published detailed preliminary GDP estimates, large movements in international trade were the main factor underlying the Q3 2022 changes. In the United States, net exports (exports minus imports) drove the return to growth, reflecting a 4% increase in goods exports and a drop of 2.3% in goods imports. The United Kingdom sawnet exports rise due toa strong increase of goods exports (14.7%) and a 5.0% drop of goods imports; but this was more than offset by a fall in final domestic demand.By contrast, in France and Japan, net exports were the main drag on growth. In France, imports increased more than exports in Q3; but final domestic demand, mainly driven by increases in investment and inventory investment (restocking), kept growth positive. In Japan, a decrease in net exports driven by a strong increase in services imports pushed GDP lower.

Of the OECD countries closest to the war in Ukraine, growth in Poland recovered in the third quarter, with GDP rising by 0.9%, following a contraction of 2.4% in Q2 2022. However, GDP contracted in Latvia (minus 1.7%), Slovenia (minus 1.4%) and Hungary (minus 0.4%). GDP growth remained unchanged in the Slovak Republic for the fourth quarter in a row (0.3%) and picked up slightly in Lithuania (to 0.4% in Q3 2022, from 0.3% in Q2). Among other OECD countries for which data is available, Mexico recorded the strongest GDP growth (1.8%), followed by Colombia (1.6%) and Norway (1.5%), while GDP contracted in Chile (by minus 1.2%).

In Q3 2022, GDP in the OECD area exceeded its pre-pandemic (Q4 2019) level by 3.7%. However, GDP in the United Kingdom was 0.4% below its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter of 2022, following revisions to the historical series(ii) (Figure 2).

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i) The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics (ONS) warned users on the impact of the exceptional bank holiday for the State Funeral of Queen Elizabeth II which affected September 2022 GDP estimate and, to some extent, the Q3 2022 estimate (see ONS release).

ii) Previously, the United Kingdom Office for National Statistics estimated that cumulative growth between Q4 2019 and Q2 2022 was positive (0.6%). Following revisions to the historical series, Q2 2022 GDP was estimated at 0.2% below its Q4 2019 level, and Q3 2022 GDP was estimated at 0.4% below this level.

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