As climate change continues to intensify the frequency and severity of extreme weather events worldwide, a recent United Nations Environment Programme report warns that global temperatures are likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold within the coming years, posing increasing risks to cities and communities around the world. To help address these challenges, HKUST is leading global collaboration in urban weather forecasting and climate resilience through the Urban-PREDICT International Coordination Office (the Office), established on campus in November 2025 under the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP).
Over the past year, the Office has brought together scientists, cities, and stakeholders from around the world to advance next-generation urban weather forecasting, hazard prediction, and climate resilience in the face of escalating climate risks. HKUST recently convened experts from the Urban-PREDICT Steering Group to evaluate progress made during the project’s first year and chart future directions for international collaboration and research.
Co-chaired by Prof. CHEN Fei, Associate Head of the Division of Environment and Sustainability at HKUST, Urban-PREDICT brings together scientists from all six inhabited continents to develop next-generation urban-scale hazard prediction and early warning systems. Coordinated through the Office at the HKUST IAS Atmospheric Research Center, the initiative drives global research collaboration, city demonstration projects, and cross-sector partnerships. Through the integration of high-resolution modeling, AI-driven forecasting, effective risk communication, and community preparedness, Urban-PREDICT seeks to improve the prediction of urban weather hazards and ensure that scientific advances are translated into timely, understandable, and actionable warnings for governments, infrastructure operators, and communities.
Hong Kong as a Global Demonstration City
Urban-PREDICT selected Hong Kong, Montevideo (Uruguay), and Lusaka (Zambia) from an initial pool of 14 global candidates last year to serve as Global Demonstration Cities. Located in Asia, South America, and Africa respectively, and spanning different climatic zones and urban environments, the three cities provide valuable opportunities for comparative research and cross-city learning.
Hong Kong’s selection reflects its unique combination of advanced observation and forecasting capabilities, mature warning and emergency response systems, dense and complex urban development, and extensive experience in managing multiple weather-related hazards. Together, these strengths make Hong Kong an important platform for driving urban climate innovation and knowledge transfer across the region.
Prof. Chen Fei stated, “Forecasting extreme weather in complex urban environments is an escalating challenge that requires immediate and globally coordinated action. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly calls for strengthening climate risk assessment and enhancing climate adaptation capacity, while the HKSAR Government’s first Five-Year Plan highlights the importance of smart technologies and environmental monitoring in building infrastructure resilience.
Through the Urban-PREDICT project, HKUST is combining ultra-high-resolution forecasting models and scientific observations with local knowledge, lived experiences, and governance practices. This integrated approach aims to strengthen urban climate resilience, enhance adaptive capacity, improve risk communication, and ultimately safeguard communities against increasingly frequent and severe weather events. As a Global Demonstration City, Hong Kong is not only a valuable testbed for innovation but also an important platform for international knowledge exchange. It enables Hong Kong to share its experience while providing opportunities for Hong Kong to benefit from the diverse perspectives and practices of other cities facing different climate risks and challenges.”
Sharing Hong Kong’s Experience to Advance Global Learning
During their visit, experts from the Urban-PREDICT Steering Group undertook a series of field studies to better understand Hong Kong’s climate risks, early warning systems, and urban resilience strategies. Working alongside an international team of students from the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Brazil, and HKUST, they conducted interviews, focus groups, and site visits involving government agencies, academic institutions, community organizations, and industry stakeholders. The delegation visited a range of organizations, including government departments, industry associations, transport operators, property developers, and non-governmental organizations. They also engaged directly with local households and visited the Hung Hom Community Living Room, gaining first-hand insights into the challenges faced by residents living in subdivided units during extreme weather events.
In parallel, researchers from the Chinese Mainland, India, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, UK, US, Italy, and Japan participated in the Urban Forecast Model Intercomparison Project to evaluate and improve the performance of weather forecasting models in predicting extreme heat and heavy rainfall within Hong Kong’s complex urban environment. Insights generated through this international collaboration are expected to support forecasting improvements in cities worldwide.
Preliminary findings from the fieldwork highlighted the value of earlier warning issuance, showing that even a few additional hours of lead time can significantly enhance a city’s preparedness and response to extreme weather events. The experts also emphasized the importance of incorporating place-specific knowledge and local context into early-warning systems, making weather information more relevant, actionable, and responsive to the needs of different communities.
CARE2026 to Begin Tomorrow
The discussions and insights emerging from Urban-PREDICT will continue at the Climate Adaptation and Resilience Conference 2026 (CARE2026), taking place at HKUST from October 8 to 10, 2026. Bringing together leaders from government, academia, industry, finance, insurance, and community organizations, the conference will explore how climate risks affect interconnected systems and how risk intelligence can support more effective preparedness, decision-making, investment, and adaptation strategies.
