A Rise in July:
ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads rose 0.8 per cent m/m in July after an upwardly revised 0.1 per cent m/m fall in June. In trend terms, the series lifted 0.3 per cent m/m and is up 1.9 per cent in annual terms.
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ANZ Economist, Aaron Luk, commented:
ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads rose 0.8 per cent m/m in July, to be 2.1 per cent higher over the year. The job ads series remains 16.2 per cent above its 2010s average and has held broadly steady despite the RBA’s rate hiking cycle.
The resilience in job ads is consistent with the continued strength of the labour market. June labour force data surprised to the upside, with employment increasing by 76.3k over the month. However, some of this strength may reflect volatility associated with sample rotation. Looking through the headline result, there are ongoing signs of gradual easing in labour market conditions, with underemployment, underutilisation and youth unemployment all continuing to trend higher.
Following the release of June quarter inflation data, we remain of the view that the RBA will keep rates on hold at 4.35 per cent. That said, the trajectory of the monthly trimmed mean does suggest there remains the risk of a rate hike in November. Higher interest rates will likely weigh on activity, and we expect economic growth to remain below our estimated potential rate of around 2 per cent y/y through 2026 and 2027. As labour market conditions typically respond with a lag to slower activity, we continue to expect job ads to trend lower and the unemployment rate to gradually rise over the period ahead.
Indeed Senior Economist, Callam Pickering, commented:
Job Ad growth in July was driven by New South Wales and, to a lesser extent, Victoria and Queensland. That offset some flat results in both South Australia and Western Australia. The two mining states have experienced the strongest growth over the past year, with hiring activity increasing despite an otherwise challenging economic environment.
Gains were relatively broad-based in July, led by management and physician & surgeon opportunities. Those two occupations, along with nursing, have been the fastest growing roles over the past year.
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