Key takeaways
- Fall colors will vary widely across North Carolina. A mix of drought, heat and rainfall could create a “patchwork” of foliage, with some areas showing duller colors or shorter seasons.
- The mountains have the best outlook, but drought remains a concern. Western North Carolina is expected to offer the most vibrant foliage, especially around Asheville, while drought and warm temperatures could cause leaves to brown or drop early.
- Plenty of opportunities remain to enjoy fall foliage. North Carolina’s mountains, parks, rivers, lakes and greenways offer many places to see fall colors, even if conditions vary across the state.
A mix of drought, high temperatures and above-average rainfall could lead to a “patchwork” of fall foliage across North Carolina, with some areas seeing muted colors that fade more quickly, according to a North Carolina State University forestry expert.
“I expect to see a patchwork of fall colors across North Carolina this year,” said Robert Bardon, a professor in the Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources at NC State. “From region to region, people may see quite a bit of variation.”
Bardon, who has tracked North Carolina’s fall foliage patterns for more than a decade, analyzed the National Weather Service’s temperature and precipitation outlooks and U.S. Drought Monitor data to assess how weather conditions could shape fall color across the state this year.
North Carolina’s fall foliage can begin as early as late September in the upper mountain elevations, gradually spreading across the state until it peaks along the coast in early to mid-November. But the duration and vibrancy of fall foliage ultimately depends on weather conditions from September through October, according to Bardon.
Sunny days and cool, but not freezing, nights provide ideal conditions for fall foliage, according to Bardon. Conditions that differ from this pattern can lead to less vibrant colors or a shorter foliage season.
“A warm fall, extreme drought or excessive rain can shorten the season, but if we have the right precipitation and temperature, the fall colors can be vibrant and spectacular,” Bardon said.
The Piedmont and Coastal Plain regions face less than favorable conditions for vibrant, long-lasting fall foliage. Both regions are leaning toward above-normal temperatures and continue to grapple with drought conditions. These conditions could delay the colors, cause leaves to drop early or make the foliage look dull.
In the mountains, where millions of people visit each year to view fall foliage, the outlook is more favorable because the region has an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures, rather than a clear tilt toward warmth. Like the Piedmont and Coastal Plain, however, much of the region faces ongoing drought conditions.
“Droughts stress trees, causing them to shut down early to conserve water. This stress results in leaves turning brown early,” Bardon said. “Warm fall temperatures could contribute to the drought stress and potentially shorten the fall color season.”
Southern portions of the state lean toward above-normal precipitation, which could help alleviate drought in some areas, though Bardon warned that it could also shorten peak fall color and even diminish color intensity if there’s too much rain throughout the fall season.
Rainy, overcast conditions can limit sunlight, delaying the onset of fall color. They can also make leaves appear dull and promote fungal diseases that cause leaves to drop prematurely. Heavy rain and strong winds can further accelerate leaf loss by knocking leaves from trees.
Bardon said the Asheville area and northeastern portions of the Coastal Plain could see the most vibrant foliage this year, particularly if they remain drought-free. While drought continues to affect roughly 64% North Carolina, these areas have largely recovered following rainfall from recent storms.
No matter the conditions, North Carolina’s topography and size make it one of the best leaf-peeping destinations in the country. “It is rare to not see great fall colors somewhere in the state,” Bardon said.
“The great thing about North Carolina when it comes to viewing fall colors is the many options, from the Blue Ridge Parkway to state parks, county parks and community greenways, where people can get out and see the colors,” Bardon added.
While western North Carolina is likely to have the most vibrant foliage this year, Bardon said residents and visitors in eastern North Carolina are likely to still find plenty of color near rivers, streams and lakes, where greater access to moisture is likely to help trees withstand drought stress and maintain healthier leaves into the fall.
This post was originally published in College of Natural Resources News.
