Payroll jobs fell 0.8 per cent in the month to 16 July 2022, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said: “While some of the fall in payroll jobs over late June and into early July reflects the seasonal influence of school holidays on the labour market, together with end of financial year seasonality in payroll reporting, it also covers a period with increasing employee absences from COVID and other illnesses.
“During periods of high employee absences, we’ve seen that payroll jobs data can show slower growth and larger short-term changes than Labour Force statistics on employment, given employees without paid leave entitlements may be away from work for a short period without losing their job.”
The interpretation of change in payroll jobs around the end of financial year can be particularly challenging, until business reporting is more complete.
“As employers finalise their employees’ earnings information and the financial year is reset in payrolls, estimates of payroll jobs can show a higher level of variation and subsequent revisions, particularly around June and July.” Mr Jarvis said.
Changes over time
The employee absences up to mid-July 2022 follow a sequence of labour market disruptions outside of seasonality, as seen in previous years. This period in 2021 coincided with the emergence of the COVID Delta variant, while in 2020 the labour market had just started to recover from the initial pandemic outbreak.
“While employee absences have impacted on week-to-week changes in payroll jobs in recent months, underlying growth has generally continued through the year. By mid-July 2022, payroll jobs were 4.5 per cent above mid-July 2021 and 9.9 per cent above mid-July 2020,” Mr Jarvis said.
“This also reflects what we have seen in terms of increases in payroll jobs since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, with around 8 per cent more payroll jobs in mid-July 2022, compared with around 4 per cent more by mid-July 2021.”
| 2020 (pts) | 2021 (pts) | 2022 (pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| week 1 | 92.7 | 96.0 | 99.0 |
| week 2 | 95.2 | 97.3 | 99.5 |
| week 3 | 96.7 | 99.4 | 101.7 |
| week 4 | 97.5 | 100.4 | 103.2 |
| week 5 | 98.1 | 101.0 | 104.0 |
| week 6 | 98.7 | 101.5 | 104.5 |
| week 7 | 99.1 | 102.2 | 105.0 |
| week 8 | 99.5 | 102.5 | 104.8 |
| week 9 | 99.5 | 102.9 | 104.6 |
| week 10 | 99.9 | 103.1 | 105.0 |
| week 11 | 100.0 | 103.6 | 106.0 |
| week 12 | 99.0 | 103.7 | 106.4 |
| week 13 | 95.5 | 103.6 | 106.3 |
| week 14 | 93.0 | 102.7 | 106.0 |
| week 15 | 91.7 | 102.3 | 105.9 |
| week 16 | 91.6 | 102.6 | 105.4 |
| week 17 | 92.2 | 102.9 | 105.8 |
| week 18 | 92.7 | 103.2 | 106.7 |
| week 19 | 93.4 | 103.6 | 107.6 |
| week 20 | 94.1 | 103.8 | 107.9 |
| week 21 | 94.5 | 104.0 | 108.2 |
| week 22 | 94.8 | 103.7 | 108.5 |
| week 23 | 95.8 | 103.3 | 108.4 |
| week 24 | 96.2 | 103.5 | 108.9 |
| week 25 | 96.3 | 103.7 | 109.2 |
| week 26 | 96.2 | 103.4 | 109.4 |
| week 27 | 97.5 | 103.3 | 109.3 |
| week 28 | 98.6 | 104.0 | 109.0 |
| week 29 | 98.7 | 103.7 | 108.4 |
| week 30 | 98.9 | 102.5 | |
| week 31 | 99.1 | 102.7 | |
| week 32 | 99.2 | 102.5 | |
| week 33 | 99.1 | 102.4 | |
| week 34 | 99.2 | 101.7 | |
| week 35 | 99.3 | 101.2 | |
| week 36 | 99.6 | 101.2 | |
| week 37 | 100.0 | 101.8 | |
| week 38 | 100.2 | 102.2 | |
| week 39 | 100.0 | 102.0 | |
| week 40 | 99.3 | 101.7 | |
| week 41 | 99.5 | 102.1 | |
| week 42 | 100.3 | 103.8 | |
| week 43 | 100.7 | 104.9 | |
| week 44 | 100.8 | 105.8 | |
| week 45 | 101.3 | 106.3 | |
| week 46 | 102.0 | 106.8 | |
| week 47 | 102.4 | 107.3 | |
| week 48 | 102.6 | 107.6 | |
| week 49 | 103.2 | 107.9 | |
| week 50 | 103.3 | 107.8 | |
| week 51 | 102.5 | 107.0 | |
| week 52 | 98.8 | 103.3 |
Week 1 represents the week ending 4 January 2020, 2 January 2021 and 1 January 2022. Week 29 represents the week ending 18 July 2020, 17 July 2021 and 16 July 2022.
State and territory
Payroll jobs fell in all states and territories in the month to mid-July, with the largest falls in the Northern Territory (down 1.2 per cent) and Victoria (down 1.1 per cent). Most states and territories saw the majority of the fall in the second fortnight of the month.
The timing of school holidays differs between states and territories, reflected in different seasonality in the weekly payroll jobs data. For example, there was a slight dip in payroll jobs in the last fortnight of June in Victoria, Queensland and the Northern Territory. These jurisdictions commenced their Winter term break in the last week of June 2022, at least a week earlier than other parts of the country.
| 18 June – 2 July (%) | 2 July – 16 July (%) | |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 0.1 | -0.8 |
| New South Wales | 0.3 | -1.1 |
| Victoria | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| Queensland | -0.1 | -0.6 |
| South Australia | 0.4 | -0.7 |
| Western Australia | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| Tasmania | 1.0 | -1.2 |
| Northern Territory | 0.0 | -1.2 |
| Australian Capital Territory | 1.1 | -1.7 |
Men and women
Over the month to mid-July, payroll jobs fell for both men (down 1.1 per cent) and women (down 0.7 per cent).
“While the recent changes in payroll jobs were relatively similar for men and women, over the past year there has been a much larger increase in payroll jobs worked by women – 3.7 per cent, compared with 0.3 per cent for men,” Mr Jarvis said.
The ABS acknowledges the continued support of the Australian Taxation Office in enabling the ABS to produce weekly insights into the Australian labour market from Single Touch Payroll data.
