Cash is trash
Property investors will be active in the second half of 2022 as they seek a hedge against higher inflation, according to Pete Wargent, co-founder of Australia’s first national marketplace for buyer’s agents, BuyersBuyers.
Mr Wargent said, “there’s been lots of talk about rising interest rates, but investors tend to seek real or tangible assets in times of higher inflation. Cash is not a happy place to be when it is devaluing so quickly. So gold, precious metals, farmland, and residential land and real estate are all assets classes where investors will look to put their capital to work later this year.”
“We have never seen a situation before where households have piled up cash buffers as they have over the past two years, with households sitting on an additional $250 billion of savings through the pandemic and its associated stimulus”.
“We saw a period of high inflation in the 1970s, with the annual CPI peaking at around 17½ per cent in the middle of that decade.”
“The median price of a house in Sydney increased from $18,700 to $68,850 over the course of the decade, for an increase of well over 250 per cent, while real unit prices in the harbour city boomed, recording a nominal increase of over 300 per cent”.
“Melbourne’s median house price also increased by well over 200 per cent in the 1970s, underscoring that house prices comfortably outpaced even the racing increase in consumer prices over the decade.”
“The dynamic is different now, certainly, given that interest rates are so much lower, but we expect to see property investors looking for an effective hedge as the headline rate of inflation potentially pushes towards 5 to 6 per cent later this year…or perhaps even higher” Mr Wargent said.
Rents to rise
Doron Peleg, CEO of BuyersBuyers, said that he is seeing rents in some locations rising at a double-digit pace this year, which will encourage more investors into the market, with yields of 4 per cent or higher achievable in many parts of the country.
“There has been plenty of excitement about fixed mortgage rates rising from record lows from late last year, but there’s still a good deal of competition in the market between lenders, and variable rates are still on the floor” Mr Peleg said.
Figure 1 – Australian mortgage rates on new loans
“In fact, large institutions have been busy cutting their variable mortgage rates down towards 2 per cent in March to date, while many lenders are still offering variable mortgage rates below 2 per cent for qualifying borrowers” Mr Peleg said.
Keeping buffers
Pete Wargent of BuyersBuyers said that buyers still need to factor in potential mortgage rate increases if purchasing property today.
Mr Wargent said, “the regulator now requires that new loans be assessed with a minimum 300-basis points buffer in any case. But borrowers should still consider whether they can afford repayments down the track if interest rates were to rise significantly. We will see negative real interest rates for the time being, but that dynamic clearly won’t last forever.”
“Sydney and Melbourne look set to record softer housing prices in March, but many markets around the country are still very buoyant, notably including Brisbane and Adelaide of the capital cities and many regional markets.”
“In 2019, buyers were concerned about the impacts of a potential change in government. But this time around the ALP has indicated that negative gearing benefits will remain in place, while also announcing a First Homebuyer Support Scheme to help 10,000 first homebuyers per annum into the market – potentially saving first homebuyers up to $32,000 in mortgage insurance with a deposit as low as 5 per cent, with the government guaranteeing up to 15 per cent of the purchase price”.
“Overall, this year’s election pledges appear likely to be far more supportive of the demand side for housing, at a time when there is a chronic shortage of rental properties. Investors will naturally seek a hedge against inflation in such an environment” Mr Wargent said.
