Key points:
- National adult cattle slaughter numbers in Q1 2023 were higher by 202,000 head year-on-year.
- Lambs held back from the 2022 spring flush hit the market, with Q1 2023 seeing 656,000 more lambs processed than Q1 2022.
- Year-on-year mutton slaughter rose by 830,600 head to see 2.4 million head processed for the quarter. This was the highest mutton slaughter has been since Q4 2019.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the Quarter 1 2023 slaughter and production data today. The figures show significant improvements across most species, particularly cattle and mutton. Lamb slaughter and production improved to a lesser extent.
Female slaughter rate
The female slaughter rate (FSR), which measures the number of female cattle processed as a percentage of the total, is a key indicator and provides an important insight into the strength of the national herd rebuild.
In Q1, the FSR averaged 42.4% – a slight (0.4%) uptick on Q4 2022 results but well below the industry-recognised figure of 47%, which signals whether the herd is rebuilding or in liquidation.
The continuation of the low FSR demonstrates that the nation’s cattle herd continues to rebuild and grow, depending on each state. This data supports MLA’s forecasts for the national cattle herd to reach its highest level in a decade at 28.8 million head in its January Cattle Projections.
Cattle slaughter
Cattle slaughter in Q1 rose by 5% or 80,000 head quarter-on-quarter and is higher than year-ago levels by 15% or 202,900 head. In Q1, the country processed 1.54 million head. See table 1 below for details:
Table 1. State breakdown of cattle slaughter
Quarter-on-quarter change | Quarter-on-quarter Change actual | Year-on-year change | Year-on-year change actual | |
NSW | 14% | 41,000 | 14% | 43,200 |
VIC | 8% | 24,300 | 20% | 53,200 |
QLD | 3% | 20,000 | 14% | 88,500 |
SA | 6% | 2,200 | 2% | 700 |
WA | -13% | -14,100 | 14% | 11,800 |
TAS | 14% | 6,600 | 12% | 5,500 |
TOTAL | 5% | 80,000 | 15% | 202,900 |
Lamb and mutton slaughter
Lamb slaughter increased 4.6% or 250,000 head quarter-on-quarter, with 5.7 million lambs processed in Q1. Compared with Q1 2022, slaughter numbers are higher by 13% or 656,300 head. Both these figures support the February wave of the Sheep Producers Intentions Survey data which indicated large volumes of lambs were held back on-farm to add finish and weight due to the wet spring experienced across most of the country in 2022.
Mutton slaughter was the highlight of the Q1 ABS data release, with slaughter numbers increasing 37.5% or 644,300 head quarter-on-quarter, with 2.36 million sheep processed. Compared to Q1 2022, mutton slaughter was higher by 54% or 830,600 head. This was the highest quarterly mutton slaughter volume since Q4 2019.
The strong uptick seen in mutton slaughter is evidence of the strength of the flock rebuild as producers continue to offload non-performing older ewes.
Next week
Next week, MLA’s Market Information team will analyse both the production and slaughter performances recorded in Q1 at a state level.
In future weeks, the stock turn-off ratio, the female slaughter rate, goat slaughter and production and carcase weights will all be analysed.
