The Northern Territory remains on track for a fiscal balance surplus in 2026-27, two years ahead of the Fiscal Strategy Panel’s 2028-29 target.
The 2023-24 Mid-Year Report (MYR) was tabled in Parliament yesterday revealing a $12 million fiscal balance surplus is projected in just three years time.
The Territory’s net operating balance is projected to rebound strongly from a $475 million deficit in 2023-24, and record a $28 million surplus in 2024-25.
The operating balance is expected to continue to improve considerably over the forward estimates period reaching a $301 million surplus in 2026-27.
These results reflect the strict fiscal strategies put in place by the Territory Labor Government and growth in GST revenue, following upward revisions to the national GST pool and an increase in the Territory’s GST relativity.
The projected fiscal surplus in 2026-27 will achieve the government’s fiscal strategy objective of returning the budget to balance, two years ahead of the Fiscal Strategy Panel’s 2028-29 target.
Gross State Product (GSP) declined in 2022-23, as forecasted in the 2023 Budget, mainly due to a reduction in net export volumes from scheduled maintenance at the Ichthys LNG plant. However, GSP is projected to grow in 2023-24 by 2.9% and forecast to average 2.5% per annum over four years.
State Final Demand is also expected to continue increasing after a 1.9% growth was recorded this year driven by public and private consumption and investment, additionally business investment was particularly strong over the past year, growing by 4.7%.
There is further upside to the economic outlook as the forecasts do not include a significant portfolio of major projects on the cusp of final investment. These projects cover a range of industries including: renewable energy; gas, carbon capture, utilisation and storage; minerals and minerals processing; and digital technologies.
Quotes attributable to Treasurer, Eva Lawler:
“In 2019 our government released a plan for budget repair, and the Mid-Year Report confirms the strategies implemented to achieve those outcomes are working.
“Our economy is forecast to remain resilient over the forward estimates as inflationary pressures and higher interest rates continue to weigh on the global economy.
“We have set a target of growing our economy to $40 billion by 2030. We are determined to achieve this target as we want to see the NT reach its full potential and improve employment opportunities for all Territorians”.
Northern Territory Government
