With a decision on HVO expected by 4th September, new analysis puts a price on what approving another coal extension leaves the next generation to carry: the equivalent of almost $120,000 for every NSW child.
24 August 2026, NSW – Every child in NSW would be left with the equivalent of an almost $120,000 inheritance debt from the global climate damage associated with the proposed Hunter Valley Operations (HVO) coal mine extension, new analysis from Parents for Climate has found.
With a decision on HVO expected within weeks, the analysis puts a new figure on what today’s coal decisions leave the next generation to carry, estimating the mine’s projected emissions would cause around $212 billion in global climate damage.
For the approximately 1.8 million children living in NSW today, that is equivalent to almost $120,000 per child. It’s a cost they have no say in creating, but will live with the consequences of for decades to come.
“The cost of this coal mine on the children of NSW, and across Australia is unacceptably and excruciatingly high. The pollution will come back to every family as fires, floods, heatwaves, rising bills and disrupted livelihoods. It doesn’t matter whether it’s burnt in Singleton or Shanghai, coal doesn’t care about borders. And this is a mine in our own backyard. Wherever it’s burnt, it will impact our kids’ climate”, said Parents for Climate CEO and father of two Nic Seton.
The economic case for coal also starts to unravel when its full costs are put alongside its benefits.
NSW received around $2.95 billion in coal royalties last year, while Australian Government modelling projects the annual economic cost of natural hazards in NSW could reach $51.4 billion by 2050. That’s more than $17 in projected annual hazard costs for every $1 NSW currently receives in coal royalties.
Yet the children who will live longest with the consequences of decisions like HVO have no say in them. They don’t get a seat at the planning table or a vote. Adults make the decision today while children inherit the result.
Seton said parents understand better than most what it means to make decisions today on behalf of someone else’s future.
“Every parent knows what it means to make decisions for someone who can’t yet make them for themselves. We spend our lives trying to leave our children better off than we were.
“But our kids don’t get a say on this mine, nor do they get a seat at the table or a vote. They just inherit the result.
“No parent would knowingly hand their child a $120,000 inheritance debt for something they didn’t buy and won’t benefit from. Governments shouldn’t either. We need a fair deal for our kids.”
The proposed HVO extension would continue mining until 2045 at HVO North and 2042 at HVO South, generating approximately 809 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over its lifetime. Around 98 per cent would be Scope 3 emissions associated with the transport and combustion of the coal by end users.
A child starting kindergarten in NSW today will be an adult before HVO North is scheduled to stop mining. They will have finished school, entered the workforce and started building a life of their own, while the climate damage associated with coal mined throughout their childhood will continue to impact their future for decades.
Parents for Climate calculated the estimated damage by applying a peer-reviewed measure known as the social cost of carbon to HVO’s projected emissions. This measure was developed by a multi-institutional research team led by Resources for the Future, with researchers from UC Berkeley, Princeton University, the US EPA, Harvard and others. It puts an economic value on the damage caused by carbon pollution, including impacts on human health, food production and rising sea levels.
The $212 billion figure represents estimated global climate damage, rather than damage that would fall solely on NSW. But NSW families and children are not insulated from that global harm, and those impacts are already impacting childhoods. From rising food and insurance costs to disrupted education, cancelled sports games and worsening extreme weather, the consequences are already being felt by children and families across the country. For schools, more than 2,000 early childhood education and care services across Australia closed in 2025 due to bushfires, cyclones and floods, costing children under five almost 800,000 days of early learning (ARACY and UNICEF Australia).
The state’s own Net Zero Commission shows what climate damage means here at home. It lowers incomes while increasing grocery costs and productivity losses, ultimately resulting in a weaker NSW economy and less money in people’s pockets. For families, those impacts are already reaching the kitchen table.
If the world remains on its current path, the Commission projects the average NSW worker will lose around $3,500 in annual income every year over the next 50 years, as climate change drags on productivity, wages and economic growth. At the same time, a family of four could be paying around $3,000 more for groceries every year by 2070, alongside growing financial pressure from insurance and extreme weather.
“This is what climate damage looks like around the kitchen table. Less money coming into the family budget while the cost of food, insuring and protecting our families goes up,” Mr Seton said.
“For our kids, it’s also about the childhood they stand to lose. More days when sport is cancelled or playgrounds are too hot to play in. More school and early learning disrupted by heat, fires, floods and other disasters. More families forced to evacuate their homes, and drought and extreme weather putting pressure on the quality, availability and affordability of the food we put on the table.”
“A coal mine can close in 2045, but the pollution won’t disappear. The consequences follow our children for generations after the last truck leaves the mine.”
Separate analysis has also raised questions about whether NSW’s existing mine assessment framework adequately accounts for those costs.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) found that when higher carbon costs are applied to HVO, the project’s claimed economic benefit to NSW can be almost entirely wiped out.
IEEFA found HVO’s economic assessment valued the emissions cost of more than 15 million tonnes of direct project emissions at just $3.8 million. Using NSW Treasury carbon values instead, IEEFA calculated a cost of more than $2.2 billion.
Under another carbon-cost scenario examined by IEEFA, the emissions cost reached $5.64 billion, almost entirely wiping out HVO’s assessed $5.71 billion net economic benefit to NSW.
“There is something fundamentally wrong with an economic argument that counts the potential revenue from coal, but leaves out the costs NSW families and their children will be forced to carry”, Mr Seton said.
“Leaving billions in costs out of the equation misleads the public about the true cost of coal. It’s an extraordinary example of greenwashing on an industrial scale, and it’s our children who inherit the consequences.”
“Every parent thinks about what they will leave their children. Before approving another coal extension, decision-makers should ask the same question; what kind of future will our kids inherit from the decisions we make today?”
Parents for Climate is calling on the NSW Government to act on the advice of its own Net Zero Commission and recognise that new and expanded coal mines are incompatible with NSW’s climate targets, rather than leaving families and children to pick up the bill.
Fair Deal For Our Kids is a Parents for Climate campaign urging the NSW Government to stop approving new coal, set binding emissions targets for the coal sector, and fund a fair transition for coal communities. So every child inherits clean air, a safe climate and a town with a future. https://www.parentsforclimate.org/a_fair_deal
