As the Victorian election campaign enters its final fortnight, polling points to the strong likelihood of a change of government on November 28.
Author
- Nicholas Barry
Senior Lecturer in Politics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, La Trobe University
The Coalition, led by Jess Wilson, came into the campaign with a significant lead and it has since further strengthened its position. Polling published in the Australian Financial Review late last week had the Coalition well ahead with 31% of the vote, Labor on 23% and One Nation on 22%, while the Greens were on 15%.
The two-party preferred vote between the Coalition and Labor was 57-43 in the Coalition’s favour. Although there are small differences, other recent polls point in a similar direction.
How this will translate into seats in parliament is more complex than usual because of the low primary vote of both major parties and the high numbers for One Nation and the Greens. There are many seats that are likely to be three or four cornered contests, the results for which can be hard to predict .
But the campaign so far has brought the playing field into clearer focus, with each party facing their own challenges and opportunities.
Labor falling further behind
The campaign has been difficult for Labor. Three terms in office, corruption allegations resulting in a royal commission into the construction industry, and cost-of-living pressures meant it went into the campaign well behind in the polls.
It has been unable to make up the ground and has fallen further behind the Coalition.
Combined with the Liberals agreeing to a preference deal with One Nation, there are predictions Labor could be reduced to a “rump” in parliament .
The change in leadership from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll in July has made it hard for the government to run on its record. Some of its traditional strengths – infrastructure and industrial relations – are shaky territory because of the royal commission. A number of unions have also criticised the government.
Labor has a suite of policy announcements in a range of areas, particularly transport, housing and dental care, but a major focus of the campaign has been warning about the risks of a Liberal-One Nation minority government and claims about Wilson’s views on health care.
Safe, small targets
Going in as the frontrunner, the Coalition’s aim was to consolidate and strengthen its position, while avoiding pitfalls.
Wilson has largely managed to achieve this so far while avoiding the internal infighting that plagued the party for much of its recent time in opposition.
It has also made a range of policy announcements, focusing particularly on the economy, law and order and the need to change the government.
For the most part, though, the Coalition has tried to run a fairly safe and small-target campaign, oriented around Wilson. This has led to criticism from some Liberal MPs and candidates who claim their public appearances are being too tightly controlled, in “a very presidential campaign”.
A characteristically bumpy ride
The One Nation campaign has been far from smooth sailing, with controversy over its decision not to get the Parliamentary Budget Office to cost its policies.
The party also disendorsed two candidates, one of whom described Hitler as the “GOAT” (greatest of all time) and made Islamaphobic comments on social media.
Nonetheless, it continues to perform strongly in the polls and is close to Labor’s level of support. Combined with the Liberal preference deal, it seems likely it will win seats in the lower house as well as having a significant presence in the upper house.
The party leader, Warren Pickering, spoke to the Melbourne Press Club on Thursday and echoed many of the themes associated with right-wing populist parties around the world, criticising the major parties and the media, and hinting at sinister left-wing international forces:
we don’t answer to the tired, worn-out and obsolete two-party system that Labor and the Coalition have stitched up for themselves. We don’t answer to the globalists, the Marxists, international bodies or the cult of climate change.
What about the Greens?
The Greens campaign has focused on issues around public housing, rent controls, transport and dental care. At its campaign launch, held in early October, leader Ellen Sandel said their aim was to “replace Labor” and they have targeted six inner-city Labor seats in the lower house.
The party seems on track to benefit from the predicted fall in Labor’s vote and may well increase its presence in the lower house, although there is some uncertainty here.
The party has struggled to get as much attention in the media as the other parties.
A changing party system
As well as the likelihood of a change of government, the campaign and upcoming election are of broader significance.
Recent decades have seen a drift of votes away from the major parties, both in Victoria and around the country. In 1999, the combined Labor, Liberal and National share of the two party preferred vote in the Victorian Legislative Assembly was a bit over 92% . At the 2022 election , that had fallen to just over 71%.
If the current polling is accurate, then the 2026 election may well see the fragmented electorate consolidating around four main party groups: the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and One Nation.
This has major implications for Victoria as the most progressive state in the country will have a centre-right government with a significant parliamentary presence for a party on the populist right. This will likely flow through to policy. For example, the Coalition and One Nation have pledged to abolish the Treaty with First Nations.
Lastly, the strong level of support for One Nation and the backlash against a Labor government that has been politically and electorally dominant points to more deep-seated issues of political dissatisfaction in Victoria that need to be addressed. For the most part, the campaign so far has not properly addressed these underlying issues.
