Autumn is a critical time for farmers as they anticipate the break.
Many are understandably looking for more accurate seasonal forecasting at precisely the time the world’s climate drivers are in transition.
Agriculture Victoria seasonal risk agronomist Dale Grey said the overriding message to farmers was to use caution when determining what the seasonal outlook models are predicting and work with what they know.
“In most autumns, the Pacific and Indian Oceans are resetting from what they were doing in spring and summer and have not shown their hand enough for us to know what direction they might be going in the growing season ahead,” Mr Grey said.
“Occasionally there are exceptions, for example, late May 2015, when a majority of models had a consensus on drier conditions, with an El Niño eventuating.
“Also, seasonal models pick up on recurring patterns, however it is usually an individual weather event or two which we know are more likely to trigger enough rain for an autumn break.”
“In autumn it is always best to go with the ‘known knowns’; know how much stored soil moisture, feed and water stores you have and know what your back-up plan will be if it hasn’t rained by a certain date.”
Agriculture Victoria’s Grains Seasonal Risk team has also developed the ‘Autumn predictability barrier’ eLearn to provide more details to farmers about how the skill of a model is calculated, why the models struggle in autumn, some example years, and some tips for what they could be considering during autumn.
Also available through the Agriculture Victoria website are a series of Climate and weather courses, including:
- How to read the Fast Break table
- How to read a sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) map
- Understanding the weather forecast. What does it all mean?
- Past, Present and Future Climate eBook for the Victorian Mallee; and
- Victorian climate projections.
To keep Victorian farmers up to date on the latest, The Fast Break newsletter and The Very Fast Break videos detail Pacific and Indian Ocean and atmospheric climate driver activity each month and summarise three-month model predictions for rainfall and temperature.
The team also produces the My Rain Gauge is Busted podcast series covering all things climate and farming.
