New modelling (PDF 1.2MB) has been provided to SA Health from the University of Adelaide’s School of Mathematical Sciences and School of Biological Sciences. The model was updated on the 9 October 2022, being calibrated against our reported case numbers and hospital admission data.
As previously, this South Australian modelling takes into account the population age distribution, vaccination status (current and future prediction), the number of people who have already had a COVID-19 infection, characteristics of COVID-19 variants and how many of the COVID-19 cases we think we are detecting through testing.
This version of the mathematical COVID model for South Australia has incorporated removing the legal requirement for people testing positive for COVID-19 to isolate from the 14 October, but assuming that a proportion of people will continue to do so, to protect those around them. Slide 1 shows the number of estimated reported cases and the number of estimated actual infections. The number of reported cases will depend on how many South Australians continue to get tested with symptoms of COVID-19.
