Fiscal hole National predicted all along

The New Zealand National Party

The half year economic and fiscal update (HYEFU) proves Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson’s 2017 fiscal plan never added up and they simply can’t be trusted on the economy, Leader of the Opposition Simon Bridges says.

“This week, Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson broke their promise to New Zealanders to run surpluses and reduce debt below 20 per cent of GDP by 2022.

“Despite inheriting massive surpluses as far as the eye could see, the Government has blown them in just two years by putting the books back into a $1 billion deficit.

“HYEFU proves Labour’s 2017 fiscal plan, reviewed by BERL, did not add up. Labour said it would run a $6 billion surplus in 2020 but the latest figures show it’s going to run a $1 billion deficit instead.

“Over the entire five year period forecasted by Labour in 2017, it underestimated its operating spending commitments by $23 billion, double what we estimated at the time.

“Over the same period, the surpluses Labour projected in 2017 were $11 billion higher than those at HYEFU.

“National always said Labour’s fiscal plans didn’t add up and HYEFU proves we were right all along. Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson have blown the budget.

“Its fiscal plan and budget responsibility rules were only created because Labour knew New Zealanders didn’t trust it to spend wisely. That lack of trust has been fully justified.

“The Government would not need to break its debt promise if it hadn’t wasted billions of taxpayer dollars on failed experimental policies like KiwiBuild, Fees Free or the Provincial Growth Fund.

“A National Government would restore confidence and revive our economy by getting on with infrastructure, by making it easier for businesses, large and small, to get on with it and by being disciplined and effective in Government.”

Labour’s Fiscal Plan vs. HYEFU19

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Total

Total Crown Spending ($M)

HYEFU

104,014

111,458

121,556

126,796

130,871

594,695

Labour Plan

105,428

110,597

113,657

118,046

123,934

571,662

Difference

1,414

861

7,899

8,750

6,937

23,033

Total Crown Revenue ($M)

HYEFU

109,973

119,142

120,984

127,251

133,046

610,396

Labour Plan

108,326

114,263

119,987

124,982

130,992

598,550

Difference

1,647

4,879

997

2,269

2,054

11,846

Total Crown OBEGAL ($M)

HYEFU

5,534

7,347

943

57

1,752

13,747

Labour Plan

2,506

3,245

5,870

6,460

6,594

24,675

Difference

3,028

4,102

6,813

6,403

4,842

10,928

Net Debt to GDP (%)

HYEFU

19.6%

19.0%

19.6%

21.0%

21.5%

Labour Plan

23.0%

22.9%

21.9%

21.0%

20.0%

Difference

-3.4%

-3.9%

-2.3%

0.0%

1.5%

/Public Release. View in full here.