ANU SG research a fantasy world with dangerous conclusions
THE ANU study on the super guarantee rate comes to dangerous conclusions based on flawed assumptions that bear no resemblance to the working life of Australians.
The researchers have created a fantasy world where every Australian is a single man who is in the workforce for more than 40 straight years.
This fantasy man never runs his own business, gets an injury or illness that forces him out of work, is made redundant or has a study break.
Women do not exist and no parent takes time out of work to raise children.
Australia’s 3.9 million casual or part-time workers would be shocked to learn that the ANU researchers have modelled them out of existence.
There is no savings other than super – no family homes, investment properties, shares or bonds.
This fantasy ANU model has also done away with unpaid super. The one in three Australians that Industry Super Australia analysis shows are currently underpaid super totalling close to $6 billion a year will be relieved to know that the ANU model has ended the scourge of underpayments.
As the researchers admit the “scope of its analysis is limited”. ISA says that it is so limited that no meaningful conclusions could be drawn from it. Let alone the dangerous recommendations it makes which would lead to millions of Australians flooding onto the pension, leaving everyone to pay in the long run.
Further issues with the research include:
* Everything is indexed by the same percentage.
* With no women or children in the world, there is no need for family tax benefit with a means test which counteracts different wage movements.
* There is no test of whether any assumptions hold in history or that the balances produced by the model benchmark to reality.
* They optimise for the replacement rate of the first five years of retirement to the five years of working life when they have their lowest wage. This is not reflective of what actually happens and generates biased results.
The only way to ensure Australians have dignity, choice and control in retirement is for the government to deliver on its promise to increase the super guarantee to 12 per cent.