International Migration 15 April

International migration statistics give the latest outcomes-based measure of migration, which includes estimates of migrants entering or leaving New Zealand.

Key facts

Annual migration
Annual migration by citizenship
Monthly migration
Migration with Australia – year ended September 2023
Latest revisions
Resumption of seasonally adjusted and trend series

Annual migration

Provisional estimates for the February 2024 year compared with the February 2023 year were:

• migrant arrivals: 253,200 (± 2,000), up 64 percent
• migrant departures: 122,300 (± 1,300), up 26 percent
• annual net migration: gain of 130,900 (± 2,200), compared with a net gain of 57,100 (± 300).

The 253,200 migrant arrivals and 122,300 migrant departures in the February 2024 year are, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period.

Annual net migration provisionally peaked in the year ended November 2023, with a gain of 142,200.

The long-term average for February years (pre-COVID 2002-2019) is 118,800 migrant arrivals, 91,600 migrant departures, and 27,300 net migration.

Migrants are people changing their country of residence, regardless of their country of citizenship or visa status. A 12-month threshold is used to classify migrants from non-migrants, aligned with international guidelines on measuring migration.

Annual migration by citizenship

The provisional net migration gain of 130,900 in the February 2024 year was made up of a net gain of 178,600 non-New Zealand citizens, which more than offset a net migration loss of 47,700 New Zealand citizens.

Text alternative for International migration estimates (provisional), Year ended February 2024

For migrant arrivals in the February 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 50,800 (± 700) arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• Philippines: 35,000 (± 300)
• China: 29,000 (± 600)
• New Zealand: 27,200 (± 500)
• Fiji: 11,100 (± 300)
• South Africa: 8,200 (± 100)
• United Kingdom: 7,200 (± 200)
• Sri Lanka: 7,100 (± 100).

For migrant departures in the February 2024 year, New Zealand citizens were the largest group, with 74,900 (± 1,000) departures. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• China: 7,600 (± 200)
• India: 5,100 (± 200)
• Australia: 4,800 (± 200)
• United Kingdom: 4,600 (± 100)
• United States: 2,900 (± 100).

Citizens of India, the Philippines, China, and Fiji drove net migration gains in the February 2024 year. Country of citizenship is the nationality of passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.

The February 2024 year provisionally saw one annual record for non-New Zealand citizens:

• 226,000 migrant arrivals, exceeding the previous record before 2023, which was 138,300 in the March 2020 year.

For non-New Zealand citizens, the net migration gain of 178,600 in the February 2024 year compares with a net migration gain of 84,100 in the February 2023 year. It is also above the long-term average for February years (pre-COVID 2002-2019) of 47,600 a year.

The February 2024 year provisionally saw two annual records for New Zealand citizens:

• 74,900 migrant departures, exceeding the previous record before 2023 of 72,400 in the February 2012 year
• net migration loss of 47,700, exceeding the previous record before 2023, which was 44,400 in the February 2012 year.

The average annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 26,900 in the February years 2002-2013, and 7,200 in the February years 2014-2019.

Monthly migration

Provisional estimates for February 2024 compared with February 2023 were:

• migrant arrivals: 24,000 (± 1,100), up 8 percent
• migrant departures: 12,400 (± 900), up 59 percent
• monthly net migration: gain of 11,700 (± 1,300), compared with a net gain of 14,600 (± 300).

Migrants on student visas, coinciding with the start of the academic year, were a driver for migrant arrivals in February 2024.

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration with Australia – year ended September 2023

There was a provisional net migration loss of 23,800 people to Australia in the year ended September 2023. This was made up of 18,400 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, and 42,200 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.

Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia. This averaged nearly 30,000 a year during 2004-2013, and about 3,000 a year during 2014-2019.

The provisional net migration loss to Australia in the year ended September 2023 was made up of a net loss of 23,600 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 300 non-New Zealand citizens. This compares with a net migration loss to Australia of 11,000 in the year ended September 2022, made up of a net loss of 9,800 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 1,300 non-New Zealand citizens.

In the September 2023 year, 53 percent of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia.

Net migration loss to Australia in 2022 (published in July 2023 and based on provisional data to December 2022) has more information.

These net migration estimates draw on two Infoshare series (select ‘Tourism’, then ‘International Travel and Migration – ITM’):

• Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type, and CLPR, 12/16-month rule (Quarterly) – this uses Stats NZ monthly estimates currently available to February 2024.
• Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia by CLPR, citizenship, and birthplace (Quarterly) – this uses Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly estimates currently available to September 2023. Data for the December 2023 quarter will be available in mid-June 2024.

As the country of last previous residence (CLPR) of migrants arriving in New Zealand and Australia is not always known, an allowance for non-response to the CLPR question on both New Zealand and Australian arrival cards has been made.

Latest revisions

Migration estimates from November 2022 are provisional and subject to revision because it is not yet known whether some travellers are migrants or non-migrants.

Why migration estimates change has more information.

We encourage customers to make their own judgement on whether to use provisional migration estimates for the latest months, which have higher uncertainty, or provisional migration estimates for older months, which have lower uncertainty. Annual arrival and departure estimates are subject to notably less revision at five to six months after the reference period.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017-February 2024 contains a history of published migration estimates and revisions.

This month the revisions to the preceding month (January 2024) were:

• migrant arrivals down 1,500 (7 percent). The average revision size to the preceding month was 700 (4 percent), and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months (January 2023 to December 2023).
• migrant departures down 1,700 (11 percent). The average revision size to the preceding month was 2,100 (16 percent), and revisions were generally downwards, over the previous 12 months.
• net migration up 200. The average revision size to the preceding month was 2,200, and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months.

Text alternative for Estimated migration by direction, monthly, November 2018-February 2024

This month the revisions to the preceding year (ended January 2024) were:

• migrant arrivals down 5,700 (2 percent). The average revision size to the preceding year was 2,600 (1 percent), and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months (year ended January 2023 to year ended December 2023).
• migrant departures down 5,600 (5 percent). The average revision size to the preceding year was 3,300 (3 percent), and revisions were generally downwards, over the previous 12 months.
• net migration no change. The average revision size to the preceding year was 4,700, and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months.

Resumption of seasonally adjusted and trend series

In October 2023, we resumed the publication of seasonally adjusted and trend series for international migration with the release of August 2023 data. Methodology for bridging seasonally adjusted international travel and migration series impacted by COVID-19 has more information.

In March 2024, with the release of January 2024 data, a methodological change was made to cope with the impact of the pandemic. Seasonally adjusted and trend series up to February 2020 will no longer be revised, to avoid any unintended revisions in the historical series caused by recent data.

Provisional migration estimates

The comparisons between the February 2024 and 2023 months and years use the latest provisional estimates for each period.

The provisional estimates have 95 percent confidence intervals (±) beside them – the wider the interval, the greater the uncertainty about the estimate. However, these intervals reflect the model uncertainty, not the extent of future revisions to provisional data.

Migration estimates in more recent months have greater uncertainty and are therefore subject to larger revisions than estimates for earlier periods.

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration data transformation has more information about the migration estimates, including the 12/16-month rule and a monthly summary of the number of border movements, the number requiring modelling as migrants or non-migrants, and the history of revisions to migration estimates.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017-February 2024 also has more information.

Why migration estimates change

The outcomes-based measure of migration with provisional and final estimates is the official way we measure migration in New Zealand.

International migration uses new official measure has more information.

To classify a border crossing as a migrant movement, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, and it takes 17 months before final migration estimates are available, using the 12/16-month rule.

To produce timely results, we use a statistical model to produce provisional migration estimates. As new data becomes available each month, the provisional migration model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate. This causes shifts in the estimated number of migrant arrivals and migrant departures, and thus, changes in the net migration estimates.

Early and provisional international travel data

International travel (provisional) is updated each week with provisional international travel statistics to facilitate analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact on New Zealand’s inbound and outbound tourism sectors. This includes:

• weekly travel data for short-term overseas visitor and New Zealand-resident arrivals
• arrivals and departures data based solely on border crossings into and out of New Zealand
• stock estimates of visitors in New Zealand and New Zealand residents travelling overseas, based on arrivals and departures.

COVID-19 data portal also has summarised daily data.

Text alternative for diagram International migration estimates (provisional), Year ended February 2024

The diagram shows outcomes-based (provisional) estimates of migration, by citizenship (New Zealand or non-New Zealand) for the year ended February 2024. Overall, net migration is 130,900, made up of a net loss of 47,700 NZ citizens (based on 27,200 migrant arrivals, a 3 percent decrease on the year ended February 2023, and 74,900 migrant departures, a 36 percent increase) and a net gain of 178,600 non-NZ citizens (based on 226,000 migrant arrivals, a 80 percent increase on the year ended February 2023, and 47,400 migrant departures, a 13 percent increase). Estimates are provisional as of 15 April 2024.

Text alternative for Estimated migration, monthly, November 2018-February 2024

Graphs show monthly revisions to provisional migrant arrivals, migrant departures, and net migration for each month from November 2018 to February 2024. The data is shown in three line graphs arranged one after the other vertically, starting with migrant arrivals (top), migrant departures (middle), net migration (bottom). The vertical axis shows estimated number of migrants. Months are labelled on the horizontal axis.

More data

Use Infoshare to access time-series data for international travel and migration:

Subject category: Tourism
Group: International travel and migration – ITM

Definitions and metadata

International migration – DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce international travel and migration statistics.

International migration concepts – DataInfo+ gives definitions of terms used in this release.

Subnational short-term NZ-resident arrivals – DataInfo+ gives methodology for determining the New Zealand-location information in short-term New Zealand-resident arrival records.

Technical enquiries

Dave O’Donovan
03 964 8924
[email protected]

ISSN 2624-2702

Next release

International migration: March 2024 will be released on 14 May 2024.