Migration flows down to a trickle

COVID-19 travel and border restrictions have reduced migrant arrivals and departures to low levels in recent months, Stats NZ said today.

April to July 2020 were months under full border restrictions imposed by the New Zealand government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

New Zealand citizens dominated migrant arrivals during this period, making up a provisionally estimated 4,000 migrant arrivals. For migrant departures of New Zealand citizens, the number was provisionally estimated at 800.

“Monthly migrant flows of New Zealand citizens are well below levels in previous years,” population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.

“Border and travel restrictions, along with capacity constraints in managed isolation and quarantine facilities, have limited people’s ability to travel.”

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“The current net gain of New Zealand citizens is a combination of people choosing to return from overseas, and New Zealand citizens who may have been unable or reluctant to head offshore due to international travel restrictions and the evolving global pandemic,” Mr Islam said.

July 2020 is the 12th consecutive monthly net gain of New Zealand citizens. This reverses the typical historical pattern where more New Zealand citizens depart than arrive.

In contrast, there was a net loss of non-New Zealand citizen migrants each month from April to July 2020. This is the first period of net losses of non-New Zealand citizens in the outcomes-based migration estimates, available from 2001 onwards.

From April to July 2020, overall net migration was provisionally estimated at 800, made up of a net gain of 3,300 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 2,500 non-New Zealand citizens. Across the same four months in 2019, there was a provisionally estimated net gain of 14,200 migrants.

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2017-10-0154535
2017-11-0153773
2017-12-0152549
2018-01-0152458
2018-02-0151262
2018-03-0150316
2018-04-0149637
2018-05-0149506
2018-06-0148622
2018-07-0148275
2018-08-0148632
2018-09-0149257
2018-10-0149130
2018-11-0149064
2018-12-0149486
2019-01-0149132
2019-02-0149492
2019-03-0149773
2019-04-0150173
2019-05-0151237
2019-06-0152292
2019-07-0154004
2019-08-0156743
2019-09-0159128
2019-10-0163593
2019-11-0167319
2019-12-0172270
2020-01-0177293
2020-02-0183475
2020-03-0189608
2020-04-0187837
2020-05-0185359
2020-06-0182649
2020-07-0176192

Low travel in recent months

On average, there were 7,600 arrivals and 19,000 departures in each month from April to July 2020. These are well below averages for the same period in 2019, when there were 526,000 arrivals and 555,500 departures each month.

From April to July 2020, 2 in every 3 arrivals was by a New Zealand citizen, and 6 in every 7 departures was by a non-New Zealand citizen.

Almost all border crossings are by short-term travellers. From April to July 2019, about 1 in 60 people who crossed the border was provisionally a migrant, compared with 1 in 10 in the same period in 2020. This change is mostly due to the large decrease in short-term travel volumes.

2017-07-01282884
2017-08-01255099
2017-09-01272509
2017-10-01301351
2017-11-01372438
2017-12-01461505
2018-01-01439022
2018-02-01441089
2018-03-01388203
2018-04-01305017
2018-05-01242734
2018-06-01233210
2018-07-01294571
2018-08-01271507
2018-09-01284152
2018-10-01315255
2018-11-01393872
2018-12-01473694
2019-01-01454354
2019-02-01442430
2019-03-01386529
2019-04-01320155
2019-05-01238305
2019-06-01235684
2019-07-01294100
2019-08-01274329
2019-09-01283440
2019-10-01311722
2019-11-01385100
2019-12-01480994
2020-01-01465083
2020-02-01388529
2020-03-01178175
2020-04-011667
2020-05-011540
2020-06-013668
2020-07-012949
2017-07-01288394
2017-08-01247534
2017-09-01250394
2017-10-01300834
2017-11-01213259
2017-12-01229619
2018-01-01271935
2018-02-01171963
2018-03-01193230
2018-04-01223076
2018-05-01219154
2018-06-01232200
2018-07-01312950
2018-08-01270069
2018-09-01263635
2018-10-01305423
2018-11-01223069
2018-12-01236203
2019-01-01278042
2019-02-01177121
2019-03-01195052
2019-04-01236774
2019-05-01223351
2019-06-01242788
2019-07-01312185
2019-08-01270833
2019-09-01267804
2019-10-01308694
2019-11-01230177
2019-12-01250410
2020-01-01283916
2020-02-01186680
2020-03-01140736
2020-04-014589
2020-05-014082
2020-06-015602
2020-07-016191
2017-07-0110266
2017-08-018426
2017-09-018545
2017-10-018815
2017-11-018806
2017-12-017762
2018-01-0110985
2018-02-0110638
2018-03-018801
2018-04-016816
2018-05-017277
2018-06-017380
2018-07-0110194
2018-08-018823
2018-09-019011
2018-10-018801
2018-11-018627
2018-12-017959
2019-01-0110745
2019-02-0110732
2019-03-018584
2019-04-016613
2019-05-017976
2019-06-018606
2019-07-0111186
2019-08-0110635
2019-09-0111031
2019-10-0112919
2019-11-0113682
2019-12-0111692
2020-01-0115492
2020-02-0115264
2020-03-019077
2020-04-01230
2020-05-01264
2020-06-01577
2020-07-01512
2017-07-012930
2017-08-013010
2017-09-013229
2017-10-013293
2017-11-013299
2017-12-015634
2018-01-013490
2018-02-012596
2018-03-012474
2018-04-012149
2018-05-012144
2018-06-012185
2018-07-012720
2018-08-012974
2018-09-013095
2018-10-013021
2018-11-013155
2018-12-015227
2019-01-013290
2019-02-012486
2019-03-012271
2019-04-012094
2019-05-012265
2019-06-012514
2019-07-013112
2019-08-013491
2019-09-013828
2019-10-014054
2019-11-014639
2019-12-018016
2020-01-014913
2020-02-014895
2020-03-017336
2020-04-01729
2020-05-01857
2020-06-011126
2020-07-011309

Who is a migrant?

‘Migrant arrivals’ are overseas residents, including New Zealand citizens living overseas, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months in New Zealand after arriving.

‘Migrant departures’ are New Zealand residents, including non-New Zealand citizens living in New Zealand, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months out of New Zealand after departing.

Migrant arrivals and departures include the flows of New Zealand citizens as well as the flows of non-New Zealand citizens as both affect the population living in New Zealand.

The classification of travellers as migrants is based on their time spent in and out of New Zealand, not what visa type or passport they cross the border on, and not on their responses on arrival cards. Given this, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, using the 12/16-month rule, to definitively classify a border crossing as a migrant movement. Border crossing data after June 2020 therefore informs the latest migration estimates.

Key travel restrictions timeline

2 February 2020: New Zealand Government placed entry restrictions into New Zealand on all foreign nationals travelling from or transiting through mainland China .

2 March 2020: Travel restrictions for China and Iran to continue, and people entering the country from South Korea and northern Italy told to go into self-isolation .

14 March 2020: Every person entering New Zealand from anywhere in the world required to self-isolate for 14 days, excluding the Pacific.

19 March 2020: New Zealand’s borders closed to almost all travellers, except for returning New Zealanders and New Zealanders advised not to travel overseas .

24 March 2020: Tens of thousands of New Zealanders travelling overseas advised to shelter in place .

2 April 2020: New Zealand Government announced that domestic travel restrictions would be relaxed to facilitate the departure of overseas visitors .

7 April 2020: New Zealand Government announced New Zealand to enter into transit arrangements with a number of countries to make it easier for each other’s citizens to get home .

9 April 2020: New Zealand Government announced mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arrivals .

7 July 2020: New Zealand Government announced bookings on incoming Air New Zealand flights to be managed to align arrival numbers with capacity available in managed isolation and quarantine facilities .

/Stats NZ Public Release. View in full here.