National accounts heighten risk of hard landing

“Today’s national accounts release shows the economy is slowing decisively as household disposable incomes edge lower, as business profits fall more steeply and as export income falls,” Innes Willox, Chief Executive of the national employer association Ai Group said today.

“While the slowing of the economy will be welcomed because it reduces pressure on interest rates, the steam has gone out of employment growth even though population has increased at record rates. With inflation still too high, there is now a heightened risk of a hard landing and policy makers need to be cautious about tipping the economy into recession.

“A positive sign is a pick-up in productivity growth with GDP per hour worked rising 0.9% in the September quarter. This reverses a period of five consecutive falls in GDP per hour worked totalling almost 7%,” Mr Willox said.

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