Key points:
- New season lamb prices are operating 19% (or $29/head) higher than the five-year average.
- Most states are experiencing mixed demand, with wet weather hampering ability of stock to be sent to market.
- A rollover of new season lambs into 2023 is looking increasingly likely as lambs are held back from sale.
Since August, national supply of new season lambs has operated 42% (or 433,000 head) lower than the same timeframe in 2021. Average prices at a national level are also back by $30/head or 14% compared to August–November 2021. However, despite new season lamb prices softening from the record highs seen in 2021, this week’s price of $183 is 19% or $29/head higher than the five-year average of $154/head.
Although prices have softened, processor buyers continue to prioritise and demand heavy, well-finished lambs. Competition for these articles has continued to remain intense, supporting strong heavy lamb prices across most markets.
NSW
- New season supply tightened significantly this week, with extreme wet weather impacting mustering and transportation capacity across most saleyards. Supply fell 29%, or 12,100 head, week-on-week.
- Reduced supply did not spark a significant increase in buyer demand. With not all processors operating across all markets, the average price in the state improved by $2 to average $191/head this week.
- Compared to the longer term, five-year average price of $163, current prices in NSW are 17% or $28/head higher.
VIC
- Victorian supply increased by 47% or 13,000 head week-on-week as its spring flush continues to gain momentum. Despite this, supply remains behind year-ago levels.
- As a result of the large supply uptick and mixed quality of yardings, prices declined $2 week-on-week to finish at $181/head this week (slightly stronger than year-ago levels).
- The current weekly price in Victoria is operating 23% or $34/head higher than the five-year average.
SA
- South Australian new season lamb supply declined 6% this week. Supply has continued to tighten after SA recorded strong yardings in early October.
- Softer supply has driven significantly stronger demand, with prices rising 12.4% or $20 week-on-week to finish at $181/head.
- Compared to the five-year average of $139, the lamb price in SA is higher by $30 or $42/head.
WA
- A major fall in supply as harvest in WA begins has driven a slight uptick in demand and, as a result, higher prices this week for new season lambs. Supply fell by 32% or nearly 1,000 head week-on-week.
- WA bucked the trend of lower prices recorded across most other states – with its average price improving 15% or $13 to reach $97/head.
- New season lamb prices in the west are operating 12% or $13 softer compared to the long-term average of $110/head, as processors continue to struggle with workforce and labour challenges to process large volumes of new season lambs, reducing demand at the saleyards.
Looking ahead
Current price performance of new season lambs is in a solid position when compared to the last analysis undertaken by the Market Information team here.
The theme of quality finish and weight are the major determining factors of price performance for the new season lambs. While supply compared to 12 months ago is significantly lower, the expectation for the 2022 cohort of lambs to be held back from sale and offered to market in the first half of 2023 continues to look more and more likely.
These will be important considerations for producers when choosing to market lambs and the lambs capacity to add weight and finish in the face of wet conditions impacting their performance.
Attribute above content to: Ripley Atkinson, Senior Market Information Analyst
