Issued: 3pm Wednesday 7 September 2022
A cold front is bringing rain and thunderstorms to South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory today. The front will move into far western Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria later today with rain and thunderstorms impacting large areas of the eastern states on Thursday.
The system will intensify today over eastern South Australia and south-eastern Northern Territory as the front connects with tropical moisture, increasing the risk of severe thunderstorms developing this afternoon.
Severe thunderstorms are most likely to occur over southern Queensland and inland New South Wales north of Bourke and are possible through inland parts of southern Queensland, New South Wales, and north-west Victoria on Thursday.
Severe thunderstorms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding, as well as damaging winds and large hail.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued when severe storms begin to develop. The community is encouraged to enable push notifications on the BOM Weather App so any warnings for your area are sent instantly to your mobile device.
Gusty winds are likely with this system, particularly over elevated areas. The risk of winds reaching damaging thresholds over elevated parts of Victoria, Tasmania and southern New South Wales is being monitored, and warnings will be issued if required.
Widespread rainfall totals of 15 to 40 mm are likely with this event, with locally higher totals especially with thunderstorms.
This amount of rainfall is likely to cause renewed river rises and could prolong flooding in already flooded parts of inland New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria. A number of minor to major flood warnings are already current, and further flood watches and warnings may be issued as the situation evolves.
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole event is underway, and sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than average around Australia. These climate influences can increase the moisture available to feed into weather systems as they cross the continent and can be associated with increased rainfall over eastern Australia.
The October to December outlook is for wetter than average conditions over eastern Australia, and the 70% chance of a La Nina developing during the spring is likely contributing to this outlook.
Communities are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via the Bureau’s website and BOM Weather app and follow the advice of emergency services.
