Australian retailers are facing a volatile retail environment, with monthly swings in spending and an enormous gulf in performance by sector and across states. Total spending slumped in the June quarter, but a solid performance in June and July suggests stronger momentum in the September quarter.
According to Deloitte Access Economics’ latest quarterly Retail Forecasts subscriber report (Q3 2020):
- Retail spending is faring better than general consumer spending, with retail volumes falling just 3.4% over the June quarter, compared to the 12.1% collapse in housheold spending volumes
- Retail sales were well up compared to a year earlier in the months of June and July, and this momentum is expected to cotinue into the September quarter, with retail volumes expected to bounce back by 5.4%
- The headline print is masking significant divergence across the retail landscape – there is a wide range of growth performance across both categories and states
Chart 1 – Nominal and real Australian retail turnover
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