Severe weather update: Weekend storms for Sydney and Brisbane

G’day, David from the bureau here to take a look with you at the thunderstorm forecast over the next few days, and we’ll see variations on a theme. Southern Queensland, northern New South Wales, including around Sydney, are going to see showers and thunderstorms over the next three days, on and off, on and off.

So here’s what the thunderstorm map looks like for today. You can see the yellow area with severe thunderstorms possible all the way from central Queensland down through the Darling Downs, the Lockyer Valley, the Scenic Rim as well, not quite getting towards the coast in south-east Queensland today, or indeed in northern New South Wales.

So hugging the ranges there in northern New South Wales, where heavy rainfall is the main risk through many of these areas. There’s a lot of tropical moisture in the atmosphere. Some of these storms could be quite slow-moving and could stick to the higher terrain, so heavy rain leading to flash flooding is the main risk today, along with damaging winds.

Now let’s see what the impacts might look like. We’ve got weekend storms on the way for Sydney, for Brisbane and for Canberra. We’ll see that in a minute.

Some of those storms could bring down trees and power lines a little bit, like what we saw in Logan on Wednesday afternoon, although that storm was particularly strong. And the main risk really is flash flooding and localised river rises, particularly in southern Queensland where the catchments are really wet following that really rainy and stormy end to October.

So another three days of stormy rain, hit-and-miss rain with isolated higher totals could be enough to cause definitely some flash flooding and possibly some localised river flooding as well, particularly through southern Queensland.

So let’s take a look now ahead to the weekend. Here’s what the thunderstorm map looks like for Saturday, with again that yellow area of severe thunderstorms possible all the way from Charleville in western Queensland, down through the Darling Downs, into the northern slopes and plains, and into the Northern Rivers as well, down the coast, Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour, Newcastle, Sydney and even down to Wollongong and the Illawarra district in New South Wales.

So we’ll see severe storms developing through the afternoon and into the evening, moving in from the north-west across New South Wales, across eastern New South Wales, including around Sydney, and then a southerly change coming up the coast later as well for Sydney, arriving in the evening, probably after dark on Saturday evening.

And here’s what the thunderstorm map looks like for Sunday. You can see really variations on a theme here. The yellow area for severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday has shifted a little further to the east and a little further to the north, so Brisbane and the south-east coast of Queensland back in the firing line for severe thunderstorms on Sunday, as well as areas of southern and central Queensland, and again down the coast of New South Wales and along the ranges, New England and out to the North West Slopes and Plains as well.

So variations on a theme here. The weather patterns evolving quite slowly with these inland troughs that drive the storms at this time of year, just sort of sitting there, wafting back and forth each day and generating repeat rounds of showers and thunderstorms through all these areas that we’ve talked about over the course of Friday, Saturday, Sunday. You’ll see them develop here again on Sunday and then even into Monday.

That looks like probably being the last day of this thunderstorm outbreak, which could bring a risk of severe storms, potentially to south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales again on Monday. On Monday, we could also see some relatively heavy rain develop over parts of the New South Wales coast.

You can see a low-pressure system developing here on Monday, somewhere around northern New South Wales. Plenty of uncertainty with that. We’ll address that in the coming days, but that looks like the end of this system as drier air moves in from the west and then acquires a few days to follow from Tuesday next week.

But between now and then, here’s three days’ worth of rainfall across these areas, with the magenta and the purple shade showing up as 50 to 100 to even 150 mm, with some isolated high totals very much possible with some of those heavier thunderstorms.

Now, as I mentioned, the catchments across southern Queensland in particular, and even up through parts of central Queensland as well, are really wet following that really wet end to October with that blocking high. We had those ten days of constant rain and thunderstorms. So the catchments here are wet.

They’ll respond quickly when the rain starts falling this weekend. If those totals build up, there’ll be flash flooding and there could be some localised river flooding, particularly in some of those smaller catchments around south-east Queensland.

So do take care if you’re moving around south-east Queensland this weekend. There’ll be plenty of water around, so take care around those floodwaters and never drive through flooded waters.

So there’s plenty on the forecast this weekend with those thunderstorms coming and going each day.

Keep up to date with the latest warnings and forecasts on our website, on our app, and follow our social media channels. Keep an eye on the radar. Remember those warnings update regularly, so keep across that as you go about your business this weekend. Have a great weekend. Stay safe and we’ll see you next time.