Tuesday 7 May 2019: The March Quarter Sensis Business Index, released Tuesday 7 May 2019, reveals Victorian small and medium business (SMB) confidence fell dramatically in the first quarter of 2019 driven by concerns for the national economy.
The report, which measures SMB activity, expectations and confidence over a three-month period, has found that Victorian SMB confidence fell 24 points from last quarter’s all time high to a net balance of +32, sitting two points under the national average.
Speaking to the results, Sensis Chief Executive Officer John Allan said, “Although confidence levels in Victoria fell significantly the state remains positive, indicating resistant optimism among Small and Medium Businesses.
“Overall expectations for each of the five key performance indicators grew significantly to sit above the national average, with sales, employment, prices and profitability recording the highest balances in the nation,” Mr Allan continued.
Confidence in Melbourne fell from a record high level of +68 to +32 (3 points under the national metropolitan average), while regional Victoria increased 2 points to +30 – one point below the national regional average.
Perceptions of the current state of the economy continue to decline across the nation, decreasing by eight points to -4, the first negative balance recorded since June 2015 with 26% of SMBs believing the economy is slowing and 52% believing it is standing still.
Victorian SMBs are the second most pessimistic about the state of the Australian economy behind the NT, with 32% believing the economy is slowing (versus 22% who think the economy is growing for a net balance of -10). This is down 17 points for the quarter and six points under the national average.
Victorian SMBs support for the State Government continued to grow, with the net balance improving from a neutral position to +8. Those with a positive opinion referenced infrastructure investment, consultation of small business, job creation and improved access to government work as contributing factors to their support.
“There has been a steady rise in confidence in the Andrews Government, reflected in the six-year high support by SMBs,” said Mr Allan.
Victorian SMB support for the Federal Government decreased one point to +6, which is 6 points below the national average.
Elsewhere across the nation, South Australia bucked the trend of falling confidence with the net score increasing five points to an all-time-high balance of +56. Tasmanian confidence levels remained unchanged at +43, while falls were recorded across all other states and territories.
The smallest decrease was one point in the ACT with confidence at +45. The biggest fall was 32 points in WA to +20 which was the equal lowest balance also recorded in the NT (down seven points).
