Australians have become much more gloomy about the economy and increasingly worried about the irresponsible behaviour of the United States in the past year, according to the Lowy Institute’s 2026 poll.
The poll also shows a big decline in support for cultural diversity over the past two years, albeit from a very high level.
Almost six in ten people (59%) are pessimistic about Australia’s economic performance, a 12 point rise since 2025. This is the highest level ever recorded by the poll, which commenced in 2005, much higher than even during COVID or the global Financial Crisis (GFC).
Internationally, Australians have extremely low levels of trust in the superpowers, the United and China – but the major contrast is that while trust in the US is falling, that in China is rising. And for the first time, a majority (51%) see the relationship with China as more important than the relationship with the US (45%).
Trust in the US to act responsibly is at 31%, 5 points down from last year, and the lowest ever.
Just over one in five people (21%) have confidence in US President Donald Trump to do the right thing in world affairs. This is the lowest confidence in an American president in the poll’s history.
Nevertheless, Australians’ support for the alliance with the US remains strong, although falling in 2026.
Almost three in four Australians (73%) say the alliance is very or fairly important to Australia’s security, down 7 points in a year.
One in two people say Australia should distance itself from the US under its current president.
Trust in China to act responsibly is also low, at 28% but has risen 8 points from 2025.
At present, trust in the US to act responsibly is only 3 points greater than trust in China. In 2022 65% had trust in the US, while 12% had trust in China.
Half of Australians (50%) would support increasing defence spending, and more than two thirds (68%) support the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines.
Poll author Charlie Lyons-Jones said: “Support for Australia’s alliance with the United States has held up, even though confidence in President Trump has cratered. Two-thirds of Australians support the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS and a majority support the basing of American military forces on Australian soil. Those results show that Australians remain supportive of our alliance with the United States in a more turbulent world, even if they dislike President Trump personally.”
A little over half of Australians (54%) rate the Albanese government’s performance on foreign policy as quite or very poor, a rise of 13 points since 2024.
On Australia’s cultural diversity, the poll notes support has “softened”. When people were last asked in 2024, nine in ten people said they saw cultural diversity as entirely or mostly positive. This year, only 73% said this.
Lowy says this is “the largest moment on any societal question in the history” of the poll.
This loss of support comes as One Nation leader Pauline Hanson is attacking Australia’s multiculturalism, saying Australia should be “monocultural”.
Some 55% say migration is too high, only marginally above the 53% last year although 7 points up from 2024.
Most people (53%) feel unsafe or very unsafe in the world. This is the lowest level of safety the poll has seen.
Australians’ fears include the dangers of artificial intelligence. Nearly two thirds (64%) believe the risks of artificial intelligence outweigh the benefits. This is 12 points up on 2024.
The poll also showed people’s desire for insurance about fuel security. Lowy commissioned a mini-poll, run from May 18 to June 2, that asked people if they would favour the government spending about $20 billion over four years to build infrastructure to boost fuel reserves to 90 days supply. Three quarters (74%) supported that.
The Lowy poll was a national representative survey of 2013 people and was conducted March 2-15.
Lowy’s executive director Michael Fullilove said: “In 2026, the liberal international order has been replaced by something illiberal, nationalistic, and disorderly. The 22nd Lowy Institute Poll is a snapshot of Australians’ thinking as they reckon with this change.”
