“ANZ Job Ads increased 1.4 per cent m/m in June surpassing its recent peak in March.” ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch said.
“The rise came despite employment increasing by 60,600 in May. Growth in demand for labour is still outpacing supply. ABS job vacancies rose 13.8 per cent q/q to a record high 480,100 in May, a much sharper increase than ANZ Job Ads over the same period. ABS job vacancies are defined as jobs “available for immediate filling… for which recruitment action has been taken”.
“Recruitment action includes measures other than advertising alone. One reason for the larger divergence between ANZ Job Ads and ABS job vacancies recently may be an increased propensity for employers to use channels other than paid advertising to recruit, especially if they expect a reduced rate of success.
In any case, the key takeaway for us is that the sheer volume of unmet labour demand suggests underutilisation will keep falling and stay low even as demand growth is curtailed by higher inflation and rising interest rates. The very tight labour market is a key reason why we expect the Australian economy will be resilient in the face of these.
The strength in the labour market was a key factor in the Fair Work Commission’s decision to increase the minimum wage by 5.2 per cent and award wages by at least 4.6 per cent, along with the increased cost of living (and its disproportionate effect on lower paid workers), and the effects on business costs and inflation. These increases will contribute to broader wage growth acceleration in H2 2022.”