As of 3pm, 16 June 2026, an El Niño has been officially declared in the Pacific Ocean by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology .
So, what do these signs of El Niño development mean for Australia? In this expert commentary, CSIRO researchers explain the significance of El Niño conditions for Australia’s:
- bushfire season, and
- drought impacts.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that can have a big impact on our environment. El Niño years are generally warmer and drier than other years over Australia and the whole globe on average.
Following the earlier declaration by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have made that an El Niño event is underway in the Pacific Ocean, we have seen media headlines of a ‘super’ and even a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño ‘turbocharging’ extreme weather with potentially dire impacts.
Beyond the headlines, there is more to understand about the variety of natural climate phenomena that combine to contribute to major natural events.
All quotes below are available for use by media.
Will it make our droughts worse?
CSIRO Group Leader Dr Rose Roche:
An El Niño points to possible drier conditions and an increased risk of drought. However, droughts build over a long period of time (typically more than a year), and there are other drivers. Droughts usually develop when rainfall deficiencies persist and combine with factors such as temperature, evaporation, soil moisture, water demand and water storage levels.
We notice drought impacts more when relatively low rainfall years translate to poor crop and pasture growth, or prolonged dry years see water storage dams run low or empty. The timing of lower rainfall translating to poorer crop and pasture growth will depend on the amount of starting soil moisture.
However, there is an important distinction between ‘climatic’ or ‘meteorological drought’ (when it doesn’t rain enough) and ‘agricultural drought’ (when farmers don’t make enough money), particularly when it comes to the impact on rural communities. Things like stored soil moisture, or good crop and livestock prices, can see farmers through bad rainfall times. On the other side of the coin, farmers can be in economic hardship even in reasonable rainfall years when commodity prices are low.
While a drought can technically happen anywhere, it’s often the regional communities that rely heavily on agriculture that are most affected.
Australia’s south is expected to experience less rain in future in general. This long-term drying trend may increase the region’s susceptibility to impacts of lower rainfall years in future.
CSIRO Senior Research Scientist Dr Carly Tozer:
El Niño is only one factor associated with drought in Australia. An El Niño points to possible drier conditions and an increased risk of drought. Droughts occur after an extended period, such as more than a year, of much lower-than-average rainfall.
El Niño is a good indicator of dry conditions in eastern Australia as a whole, but we are such a vast country the impact is varied between regions. At individual locations, such as the eastern seaboard, it does little to shift the normal odds of dry conditions.
For parts of northern and southeastern Australia, including the Murray Darling Basin, El Niño significantly increases the odds of a dry spring season. But in large parts of Western Australia, western Tasmania and the eastern seaboard, it does not markedly change odds of dry conditions.
It’s important to consider your specific location in Australia, when interpreting what an El Niño forecast means for you.
While El Niño plays a large role in moderating Australia’s climate, it’s not the only driver of dry conditions in Australia. Other processes like the Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode and related or unrelated weather systems all contribute to Australia’s climate variability.
Will it make our bushfires worse?
CSIRO Principal Research Scientist Dr Andrew Sullivan:
While El Niño can influence Australia’s climate and weather, bushfire risk is driven by a combination of factors in addition to weather, including available vegetation, terrain and, importantly, ignition sources.
Large-scale climate drivers like El Niño can influence broad conditions such as temperature and rainfall, but they do not determine whether fires start or how they behave on the ground. Bushfires remain a complex, localised hazard that depend on whether the right conditions and an ignition coincide.
For this reason, the relationship between El Niño and bushfire activity is not straightforward. The occurrence of an El Niño event does not translate directly into bushfire occurrence or impacts, and some of Australia’s more severe fire seasons have occurred in non-El Niño years.
Fire risk is shaped not by a single driver but by the cumulative interaction of climate influences over time, such as rainfall patterns, drought, and fire weather (the coincidence of hot, dry, windy weather), alongside local vegetation conditions and prevalence of potential ignition sources (both natural and human-caused). While the emergence of El Niño is an important component in some parts of the continent, it is not a definitive indicator of how a bushfire season will unfold. What matters is how these interacting factors evolve: wetter periods can boost vegetation growth, which may increase fire risk later if conditions dry out and are followed by hot, dry and windy weather with an ignition source.
CSIRO is supporting national capabilities such as the National Bushfire Intelligence Capability , improved fire danger rating systems and advanced tools like Spark that model fire spread and behaviour. Together, these advances help emergency services and communities better understand and respond to bushfire risk under a range of climate scenarios, including, but not limited to, El Niño.
