The study emphasises that we are living in a period of profound and accelerating change – with rapid technological innovation, advances in AI, new business models and changing consumer preferences all reshaping banking.
“Understanding how banking could change helps us to prepare for emerging risks and opportunities, and remain effective in supporting a sound, efficient and inclusive financial system,” Assistant Governor Financial Stability Angus McGregor says.
The study identifies key drivers of change and outlines three plausible scenarios for banking in New Zealand by 2035, including:
- Better banks – Banking evolves incrementally as incumbent banks adapt effectively.
- Digital banking revolution – Digital banks and fintechs gain significant market share.
- Banking ecosystems – Banking is increasingly delivered through interconnected ecosystems and digital platforms.
Across the scenarios, potential opportunities include strengthened competition, innovation, participation, efficiency and improved consumer outcomes. Change could also amplify existing risks and create new ones, such as increased operational complexity, third-party concentration, AI related risks and increased activity emerging outside the current regulatory perimeter.
The study considers what these changes could mean for New Zealanders, including how people access banking services, who provides them, and how trust and resilience are maintained.
The study does not recommend specific policy positions. It is intended to support preparedness and contribute to public understanding and discussion about the forces that may shape banking in New Zealand over the coming decade.
“We are not seeking to predict the future, and we do not have a preferred scenario,” Mr McGregor says. “The value of this work is in understanding how banking may evolve, so we can be prepared and support a stable financial system, that is competitive, innovative and inclusive, no matter how the future unfolds.”
More information
The Future of Banking Study: Future banking scenarios for NZ in 2035
