Export lamb and beef prices reached new highs in the September 2019 quarter, while forestry products fell sharply, Stats NZ said today.
“Both meat and dairy product export prices were up in the September quarter, following similar rises in the June quarter,” business price manager Bryan Downes said.
“In contrast, forestry product export prices, mainly logs, had the largest quarterly fall in over 10 years.”
In total, export prices rose 1.9 percent in the September 2019 quarter to their highest in over 10 years, while import prices remained flat. The overall terms of trade remained at high levels, close to peaks seen in late 2017, when export prices for dairy and meat were also high.
Terms of trade is a measure of the purchasing power of New Zealand’s exports abroad and is an indicator of the state of the overall economy.
Meat prices rose 4.8 percent in the September 2019 quarter, surpassing last quarter’s high. This was driven by both higher prices for lamb (up 6.0 percent), and beef (up 5.4 percent). Both lamb and beef prices are at their highest-ever levels.
“Lamb and beef prices rose this year at the same time as international demand for meat increased,” Mr Downes said.
“The higher demand for meat was largely due to the African swine fever outbreak in China, resulting in reduced pork supplies being substituted with alternatives.
“New Zealand consumers are also seeing higher meat prices – bacon and ham prices rose more than 20 percent for the year to October 2019.”
Quarter | Total exports | Dairy | Meat | Forestry |
Sep 09 | 973 | 943 | 1028 | 906 |
Dec 09 | 970 | 993 | 943 | 905 |
Mar 10 | 1072 | 1311 | 976 | 1005 |
Jun 10 | 1112 | 1390 | 1019 | 1053 |
Sep 10 | 1112 | 1489 | 1024 | 1011 |
Dec 10 | 1118 | 1358 | 1076 | 1019 |
Mar 11 | 1188 | 1433 | 1183 | 1063 |
Jun 11 | 1211 | 1498 | 1217 | 1059 |
Sep 11 | 1162 | 1427 | 1159 | 964 |
Dec 11 | 1182 | 1411 | 1197 | 971 |
Mar 12 | 1138 | 1331 | 1154 | 929 |
Jun 12 | 1126 | 1296 | 1128 | 928 |
Sep 12 | 1055 | 1127 | 1061 | 921 |
Dec 12 | 1036 | 1096 | 1065 | 914 |
Mar 13 | 1056 | 1171 | 1032 | 938 |
Jun 13 | 1089 | 1329 | 1009 | 970 |
Sep 13 | 1185 | 1648 | 1080 | 1040 |
Dec 13 | 1182 | 1630 | 1077 | 1018 |
Mar 14 | 1191 | 1668 | 1091 | 1035 |
Jun 14 | 1164 | 1596 | 1093 | 952 |
Sep 14 | 1111 | 1413 | 1141 | 912 |
Dec 14 | 1091 | 1203 | 1282 | 986 |
Mar 15 | 1048 | 1127 | 1228 | 992 |
Jun 15 | 1071 | 1194 | 1203 | 935 |
Sep 15 | 1107 | 1193 | 1300 | 1002 |
Dec 15 | 1044 | 1041 | 1235 | 1020 |
Mar 16 | 1040 | 1094 | 1157 | 1060 |
Jun 16 | 1020 | 1017 | 1167 | 1066 |
Sep 16 | 992 | 984 | 1131 | 1017 |
Dec 16 | 1041 | 1120 | 1149 | 1047 |
Mar 17 | 1113 | 1323 | 1179 | 1081 |
Jun 17 | 1138 | 1375 | 1292 | 1120 |
Sep 17 | 1119 | 1364 | 1277 | 1118 |
Dec 17 | 1180 | 1457 | 1368 | 1194 |
Mar 18 | 1154 | 1359 | 1334 | 1191 |
Jun 18 | 1183 | 1402 | 1383 | 1195 |
Sep 18 | 1225 | 1489 | 1402 | 1213 |
Dec 18 | 1203 | 1404 | 1398 | 1220 |
Mar 19 | 1172 | 1297 | 1390 | 1221 |
Jun 19 | 1210 | 1435 | 1459 | 1198 |
Sep 19 | 1233 | 1563 | 1529 | 1082 |
Seasonally adjusted export meat volumes were up 1.4 percent and values were up 8.0 percent in the September 2019 quarter. Lamb volumes fell 0.7 percent while values rose 7.9 percent. Beef volumes rose 2.9 percent and values were up 7.4 percent.
Dairy product prices rose 8.9 percent in the September 2019 quarter, with milk powder up 9.6 percent, butter up 7.3 percent, and cheese up 6.2 percent.
Forestry product prices fell 9.7 percent in the September 2019 quarter, following a 1.9 percent fall last quarter. Forestry product volumes fell 5.5 percent and values fell 12 percent.
Quarter | Volumes | Prices |
Jun 90 | 447 | 822 |
Sep 90 | 503 | 810 |
Dec 90 | 518 | 794 |
Mar 91 | 510 | 802 |
Jun 91 | 516 | 801 |
Sep 91 | 598 | 798 |
Dec 91 | 603 | 785 |
Mar 92 | 561 | 802 |
Jun 92 | 599 | 807 |
Sep 92 | 606 | 819 |
Dec 92 | 647 | 866 |
Mar 93 | 684 | 914 |
Jun 93 | 684 | 1050 |
Sep 93 | 573 | 1142 |
Dec 93 | 589 | 1002 |
Mar 94 | 689 | 993 |
Jun 94 | 649 | 971 |
Sep 94 | 701 | 973 |
Dec 94 | 681 | 975 |
Mar 95 | 679 | 991 |
Jun 95 | 695 | 993 |
Sep 95 | 686 | 1013 |
Dec 95 | 657 | 1033 |
Mar 96 | 688 | 977 |
Jun 96 | 695 | 894 |
Sep 96 | 706 | 875 |
Dec 96 | 750 | 850 |
Mar 97 | 696 | 809 |
Jun 97 | 786 | 799 |
Sep 97 | 757 | 848 |
Dec 97 | 698 | 867 |
Mar 98 | 703 | 863 |
Jun 98 | 660 | 846 |
Sep 98 | 702 | 851 |
Dec 98 | 795 | 823 |
Mar 99 | 791 | 832 |
Jun 99 | 758 | 844 |
Sep 99 | 866 | 901 |
Dec 99 | 838 | 958 |
Mar 00 | 863 | 995 |
Jun 00 | 958 | 1045 |
Sep 00 | 795 | 1142 |
Dec 00 | 847 | 1128 |
Mar 01 | 876 | 1067 |
Jun 01 | 922 | 979 |
Sep 01 | 960 | 973 |
Dec 01 | 963 | 981 |
Mar 02 | 911 | 1011 |
Jun 02 | 992 | 1000 |
Sep 02 | 1026 | 973 |
Dec 02 | 1021 | 921 |
Mar 03 | 1027 | 854 |
Jun 03 | 935 | 843 |
Sep 03 | 930 | 826 |
Dec 03 | 936 | 846 |
Mar 04 | 1022 | 849 |
Jun 04 | 1025 | 878 |
Sep 04 | 1006 | 826 |
Dec 04 | 1029 | 792 |
Mar 05 | 982 | 805 |
Jun 05 | 1018 | 818 |
Sep 05 | 978 | 809 |
Dec 05 | 992 | 795 |
Mar 06 | 1021 | 823 |
Jun 06 | 990 | 880 |
Sep 06 | 1053 | 889 |
Dec 06 | 1049 | 893 |
Mar 07 | 990 | 919 |
Jun 07 | 1001 | 908 |
Sep 07 | 997 | 890 |
Dec 07 | 1002 | 872 |
Mar 08 | 1017 | 879 |
Jun 08 | 965 | 898 |
Sep 08 | 1019 | 941 |
Dec 08 | 973 | 1044 |
Mar 09 | 895 | 1042 |
Jun 09 | 1044 | 909 |
Sep 09 | 1065 | 906 |
Dec 09 | 1050 | 905 |
Mar 10 | 1085 | 1005 |
Jun 10 | 1124 | 1053 |
Sep 10 | 1100 | 1011 |
Dec 10 | 1198 | 1019 |
Mar 11 | 1230 | 1063 |
Jun 11 | 1195 | 1059 |
Sep 11 | 1212 | 964 |
Dec 11 | 1171 | 971 |
Mar 12 | 1198 | 929 |
Jun 12 | 1272 | 928 |
Sep 12 | 1224 | 921 |
Dec 12 | 1278 | 914 |
Mar 13 | 1271 | 938 |
Jun 13 | 1267 | 970 |
Sep 13 | 1358 | 1040 |
Dec 13 | 1322 | 1018 |
Mar 14 | 1357 | 1035 |
Jun 14 | 1269 | 952 |
Sep 14 | 1210 | 912 |
Dec 14 | 1311 | 986 |
Mar 15 | 1251 | 992 |
Jun 15 | 1272 | 935 |
Sep 15 | 1236 | 1002 |
Dec 15 | 1251 | 1020 |
Mar 16 | 1310 | 1060 |
Jun 16 | 1327 | 1066 |
Sep 16 | 1369 | 1017 |
Dec 16 | 1284 | 1047 |
Mar 17 | 1304 | 1081 |
Jun 17 | 1351 | 1120 |
Sep 17 | 1364 | 1118 |
Dec 17 | 1442 | 1194 |
Mar 18 | 1397 | 1191 |
Jun 18 | 1411 | 1195 |
Sep 18 | 1479 | 1213 |
Dec 18 | 1454 | 1220 |
Mar 19 | 1486 | 1221 |
Jun 19 | 1453 | 1198 |
Sep 19 | 1373 | 1082 |
Overall export volumes, adjusted for seasonal effects, fell 4.6 percent, and values fell 2.0 percent in the September 2019 quarter.
Import volumes up
Overall import volumes, adjusted for seasonal effects, rose 1.1 percent in the September 2019 quarter, with passenger motor cars driving this increase, up 20 percent.
Total import prices were flat, while values were up 0.7 percent.
Terms of trade up 1.9 percent
The merchandise terms of trade rose 1.9 percent, as export prices rose more than import prices. An increase means New Zealand can buy more imports for the same amount of exports.