Key points:
- NSW new season lamb prices lift week-on-week despite a supply increase of 10,600 head.
- Large volumes of new season lambs in WA are placing downward pressure on prices.
- Processor demand at the saleyards for the remainder of 2022 will determine price performance for new season lambs.
Large increases in new season lamb supply across most states this week as well as intense processor demand has seen prices for the influx of 2022 lambs perform extremely well.
New season lamb supply week-on-week
- WA yardings increased by 172% or 2,576 head
- SA yardings softened by 56% or 3,411 head
- NSW yardings increased by 33% or 10,619 head
- Victoria’s yardings increased by 45% or 8,772 head.
WA
- As a result of stronger supply in WA this week, prices for new season lambs softened by 10% this week to average $87/head.
- As WA processors continue to work through large volumes of lambs from the 2022 cohort, supply continues to place downward pressure on prices.
- As spring continues, WA new season lamb prices will be determined by processor capacity and new season lamb supply.
SA
- Following a large volume of lambs last week, a tightening of supply saw prices continue to rise for 2022 lambs in SA to $184/head – their highest level since the first week of December 2021.
- Currently, SA prices are operating 19% or $29/head above the three-year average.
- Compared with the corresponding week in 2021, prices are firm while supply is softer by 58% or 8,300 head. Dry conditions in 2021 saw new season lambs delivered early to market last year.
- Favourable conditions promoting higher lambing percentages in 2022 and the larger lamb cohort expected will determine – and may place pressure on – significant price increases moving towards the end of 2022.
NSW
- Robust processor activity driving intense buyer demand for ready to process lambs pushed the state’s average price higher by $3 week-on-week to $189/head. This makes NSW lambs the most expensive lambs in the country, despite a 33% increase in supply. It is also the highest weekly price for new season lambs since mid-July, when just 336 head were yarded in the state, and comes as 41,245 head were yarded this week.
- The current NSW new season lamb price is operating 7% or $12 higher than the three-year average of $177/head.
- Compared to the corresponding week in 2021, both price and supply are softer, reiterating a late arrival of new season supply in 2022.
- Continued strong processor demand and their capacity to process large volumes of lambs will dictate price performance for NSW towards the end of the year.
VIC
- A sharp uptick in Victorian new season supply this week saw prices soften marginally, with processor demand causing prices to stabilise compared with NSW.
- This week, Victoria’s new season lambs averaged $184 to be firm on week-ago levels, although these prices were 12% or $19 higher than the three-year average of $162/head.
- Victoria’s new season lamb price performance for the remainder of 2022 will be influenced by the volumes of lambs contracted out of the paddock and delivered from interstate. This will determine price performance, dependent on processor demand.
Looking ahead
New season supply is expected to arrive later than previous years and the current robust demand from processors for quality lambs is driving buyer competition and price.
Saleyard price performance in each state moving towards the end of the year will be dependent a number of factors, including:
- processor capacity to deal with larger volume of lambs than the previous 2 years
- the number of lambs consigned to forward or direct contracts from the paddock
- the finished quality of lambs, with higher quality and weight supporting stronger prices.
The outlook on prices as the end of the year approaches remains favourable. However, due to larger volumes and the aforementioned factors, price performance may remain constrained.
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