The 2026 elections in Brazil played out amid an widespread assumption repeated around the world : that the country was polarized and that would inform the vote.
Author
- João Gabriel de Lima
Jornalista, doutorando em Política Comparada, Universidade de Lisboa
But the word “polarization” implies symmetry – and symmetry is something that never existed in the contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. On one side, a moderate center-left politician with a center-right running mate, Geraldo Alckmin. On the other, a representative of the radical right and a member of an international movement that critics say threatens democracies around the world.
Flávio is no mere conservative. While he may be courted and supported by the members of the Republican Party in the U.S., his policies put him more in the mold of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany and Portugal’s Enough, a party that advocates the repatriation of immigrants and a ban on Muslim places of worship.
On the day he launched his candidacy, at an event of Brazil’s Liberal Party (PL) in São Paulo, Flávio laid out three of the guiding principles of what his administration would look like. First was the so called “Project Darkness”, a crime-fighting plan inspired by by El Salvador’s hard-right President Nayib Bukele . Second was joining the Shield of the Americas , U.S. President Donald Trump’s military and political initiative for the continent. Thirdly, Flávio laid out plans for the “tesouraço” or “big cut” – a slashing of public spending modeled after Argentinian President Javier Milei’s ” chainsaw ” economic policy. Since he didn’t provide any details, it’s unclear whether it would be just as sharp as Milei’s, but it was enough to strike fear into those who depend on social programs to survive.
Milei himself was at the launch event. He arrived singing the song The Panic Show by the Argentine hard rock band La Renga. Flávio accompanied Milei in the song’s refrain: “Yo soy el león, soy el rey y te destrozaré” (“I am the lion, I am the king, and I will tear you apart”) while dancing along with the Argentine president.
It is, I believe, the form, more than the content, that defines the members of the far-right brotherhood that threatens democracies around the world. They are politicians who do not like to negotiate, even though negotiation is the essence of politics. They want to annihilate the “enemy”, as if they were, literally, on a battlefield.
Misplaced ideas
Flávio’s ideas are clearly “misplaced ideas,” to borrow the term coined by Brazilian literary critic, essayist, and professor Roberto Schwarz . It is impossible to implement Nayib Bukele’s crime-fighting plan – which allows for the arrest of any citizen without a formal charge, the right for legal counsel, or habeas corpus – in a democratic country.
On the economy side, in the midst of a debt crisis, Brazil does needs a fiscal adjustment. However, the country’s economic situation bears no resemblance to that of Argentina, a country that has seen its currency collapse and is rolling over dollar denominated debt.
A recent report in the Financial Times portrayed what is known in Brazil as Bolsonarism as a clan similar to the Roy family from the American television series “Succession.” Nothing could be more apt. Flávio is not Flávio. He is merely a generic offshoot of the Bolsonaro brand. During the Brazilian TV Globo election debate held right before the runoff of last Sunday, Oct. 25, he referred to his now jailed father administration as “our government.” If he were elected president, Flávio would have governed under Jair’s supervision and alongside his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro – a former congressman now living in the U.S. to escape a arrest warrant – who serves as the point of contact between Bolsonarism and the radical and far right around the world.
Eduardo is close to former Hungary prime minister Viktor Orbán , Spain’s Santiago Abascal , president of Spanish far-right party Vox, El Salvador’s Bukele, France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen , and the most radical wing of the U.S. Republican Party.
Flávio spent the election campaign trying to pretend he wasn’t like his father. He marketed himself as the “moderate Bolsonaro.” But Bolsonarism, in Brazilian politics, is synonymous with extremism. The mask slipped during his final speech. If he were a democrat, he would have conceded the indisputable defeat suffered on Oct. 25. Instead, he refused to concede and vowed to challenge the results .
A conservative choice
But how did Lula defeat Flávio? My hypothesis is that Brazilians made a conservative choice. Lula has already governed the country three times. Voters know what to expect from him. His opponent, on the other hand, is seen widely as the Brazilian member of a radical global right wing movement, and whose leader is in prison for attempting a coup. The images of vandals destroying the buildings that house the federal executive, legislative, and judicial branches of Brazil’s government on 8 Jan. 2023 – an echo of the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riot in the U.S. – are still vivid in the memory of Brazilians.
Faced with a choice between something they already know and the unpredictability of extremists, Brazilians opted for the conservative vote. Being prudent, they did not want to risk their democracy.
