Net migration high but down from peak

Today’s release of updated migration estimates indicates New Zealand’s annual net migration for the year ended May 2019 was 46,100 (± 800), Stats NZ said today. This is down 9,400 from the estimate released in December 2019 due to improved linking.

“The latest net migration estimates indicate we are about 20,000 below the peak of 63,900 reached in the year ended July 2016,” population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.

“Annual net migration has been above 40,000 since late 2014 and remains at a historically high level.”

Month publishedArrivals published Dec 2019Arrivals published Jan 2020Departures published Dec 2019Departures published Jan 2020Net migration published Dec 2019Net migration published Jan 2020
Dec-0111536511536584243842433112231122
Jan-0211881111881181100811003771137711
Feb-0212038512038577729777294265642656
Mar-0212346112346176141761414732047320
Apr-0212512212512275249752494987349873
May-0212670912670973395733955331453314
Jun-0212847112847173158731585531355313
Jul-0212989612989672990729905690656906
Aug-0213174413174472938729385880658806
Sep-0213276313276372896728965986759867
Oct-0213325913325973098730986016160161
Nov-0213396613396673382733826058460584
Dec-0213464213464274006740066063660636
Jan-0313476613476674260742606050660506
Feb-0313478713478774084740846070360703
Mar-0313378813378874474744745931459314
Apr-0313296713296774180741805878758787
May-0313218613218674143741435804358043
Jun-0313075913075974032740325672756727
Jul-0312945112945174769747695468254682
Aug-0312758612758675518755185206852068
Sep-0312553712553775935759354960249602
Oct-0312384312384376348763484749547495
Nov-0312154812154877735777354381343813
Dec-0312026912026979316793164095340953
Jan-0411787011787079897798973797337973
Feb-0411568411568481024810243466034660
Mar-0411307711307781536815363154131541
Apr-0411134111134182611826112873028730
May-0411037611037683798837982657826578
Jun-0410924210924285149851492409324093
Jul-0410770610770686244862442146221462
Aug-0410644510644586498864981994719947
Sep-0410550410550487355873551814918149
Oct-0410444310444387843878431660016600
Nov-0410363510363588478884781515715157
Dec-0410337810337889577895771380113801
Jan-0510254710254790231902311231612316
Feb-0510206510206590814908141125111251
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Apr-0510279510279592373923731042210422
May-0510312710312792621926211050610506
Jun-0510329810329892642926421065610656
Jul-05102901102901933509335095519551
Aug-05103260103260936089360896529652
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Oct-0510398510398593982939821000310003
Nov-0510378010378093209932091057110571
Dec-0510390910390992925929251098410984
Jan-0610389210389292761927611113111131
Feb-0610455210455292262922621229012290
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Apr-0610515410515491664916641349013490
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Sep-0610800310800392885928851511815118
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Dec-0611048711048794222942221626516265
Jan-0711096311096394820948201614316143
Feb-0711151111151195959959591555215552
Mar-0711237711237796978969781539915399
Apr-0711260511260597547975471505815058
May-0711295511295598652986521430314303
Jun-0711339611339699399993991399713997
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Aug-071138631138631006441006441321913219
Sep-071139151139151010811010811283412834
Oct-071139301139301012801012801265012650
Nov-071138121138121020291020291178311783
Dec-071133921133921027411027411065110651
Jan-0811308911308910334810334897419741
Feb-081144611144611041341041341032710327
Mar-081146911146911044681044681022310223
Apr-081154531154531048881048881056510565
May-081168471168471052851052851156211562
Jun-081177111177111058651058651184611846
Jul-081190721190721065301065301254212542
Aug-081195371195371072571072571228012280
Sep-081194421194421072931072931214912149
Oct-081200671200671079721079721209512095
Nov-081200061200061085021085021150411504
Dec-081202541202541081081081081214612146
Jan-091207501207501079221079221282812828
Feb-091203471203471066821066821366513665
Mar-091197071197071056961056961401114011
Apr-091187321187321039041039041482814828
May-091174361174361018421018421559415594
Jun-0911595211595299764997641618816188
Jul-0911494611494698059980591688716887
Aug-0911334411334496091960911725317253
Sep-0911242711242794714947141771317713
Oct-0911110411110493114931141799017990
Nov-0910979510979591739917391805618056
Dec-0910836110836190288902881807318073
Jan-1010694410694489156891561778817788
Feb-1010519110519189336893361585515855
Mar-1010430410430489825898251447914479
Apr-1010350410350490466904661303813038
May-1010254310254391662916621088110881
Jun-10101786101786928959289588918891
Jul-10101348101348940089400873407340
Aug-10101388101388952499524961396139
Sep-10101281101281964479644748344834
Oct-10101374101374979599795934153415
Nov-10101022101022990479904719751975
Dec-10100645100645100776100776-131-131
Jan-11100248100248102633102633-2385-2385
Feb-11100669100669103610103610-2941-2941
Mar-11100782100782106135106135-5353-5353
Apr-11101013101013108122108122-7109-7109
May-11101150101150109486109486-8336-8336
Jun-11101026101026110299110299-9273-9273
Jul-11101271101271112166112166-10895-10895
Aug-11101319101319113176113176-11857-11857
Sep-11101066101066113595113595-12529-12529
Oct-11100411100411114331114331-13920-13920
Nov-11100659100659115161115161-14502-14502
Dec-11100255100255116194116194-15939-15939
Jan-12100112100112116513116513-16401-16401
Feb-12100290100290117111117111-16821-16821
Mar-12100833100833116149116149-15316-15316
Apr-12100251100251115630115630-15379-15379
May-12100278100278115116115116-14838-14838
Jun-12100966100966115464115464-14498-14498
Jul-12100249100249114560114560-14311-14311
Aug-12100043100043114306114306-14263-14263
Sep-12100387100387114183114183-13796-13796
Oct-12100940100940113336113336-12396-12396
Nov-12101321101321112684112684-11363-11363
Dec-12102136102136112234112234-10098-10098
Jan-13102792102792111211111211-8419-8419
Feb-13102511102511109819109819-7308-7308
Mar-13102862102862108590108590-5728-5728
Apr-13104071104071107378107378-3307-3307
May-13105032105032106885106885-1853-1853
Jun-13106322106322105493105493829829
Jul-1310785210785210434210434235103510
Aug-1310886010886010278810278860726072
Sep-1310943610943610123810123881988198
Oct-1311075711075799949999491080810808
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Dec-1311339611339696084960841731217312
Jan-1411449711449794378943782011920119
Feb-1411670111670192964929642373723737
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Apr-1411906211906289977899772908529085
May-1412004212004288553885533148931489
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Jul-1412234412234486089860893625536255
Aug-1412454712454785405854053914239142
Sep-1412678312678385097850974168641686
Oct-1412823912823984408844084383143831
Nov-1412953012953084040840404549045490
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Jul-1513719413719483343833435385153851
Aug-1513785413785483248832485460654606
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Dec-1714308014308090531905315254952549
Jan-1814310914310990651906515245852458
Feb-1814197314197390711907115126251262
Mar-1814216714216791851918515031650316
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Jun-1814095014095092329923294862148621
Jul-1814068914066192359923864832948275
Aug-1814108414102292349923914873448631
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Nov-1814450314067292413914745208949198
Dec-18147210140216.99292814909195439549298
Jan-1914885713868293613911475524347534
Feb-19149767138149.96293602909585616347192
Mar-1914915213717193429904465572146725
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Jun-1914912313553393512898765560945657
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Aug-1914944213498792836902995660644688
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Oct-1914842013598492806930035561442981
Nov-191370009552141479

Update to provisional estimates from improved linking

The latest migration estimates include an improvement to the linking of 15,000 arrivals and departures. These links were missed previously and make up 0.1 percent of the total 15.3 million border crossings from October 2018 to October 2019. This linking is fundamental to identifying whether travellers crossing the border are migrants or visitors when arriving or leaving New Zealand.

“An additional 1 in every 1,000 border crossings has now been linked to a subsequent arrival or departure,” said Mr Islam.

“This helps us classify those 15,000 border crossings as visitors rather than migrants.”

As a result of this change, provisional estimates of migrant arrivals and departures are generally lower than previously published estimates. Because arrivals have been revised down more than departures, net migration is lower than previously published estimates. Final migration estimates are unaffected however. Migration estimates for the year ended July 2018 have now been finalised with a net migration of 48,300.

One year since new migration estimates began

The new outcomes-based measure of migration was first published as the official migration measure in January 2019, covering the period up to November 2018.

Before November 2018, the classification of travellers was based on the intentions they stated on their passenger cards when they crossed the border.

Since November 2018, the new approach uses passport data to link arrivals and departures and accurately measure how long people spend in, or out of, New Zealand after their initial border crossing. To be confident a traveller is a migrant and not a visitor, we need to observe up to 16 months of their travel history (according to the 12/16-month rule).

With this new approach, it takes 17 months before final migration estimates are available. To provide timely results, we use a statistical model to produce provisional migration estimates. Statistics produced using these provisional estimates have uncertainty for 16 months; after this time, we can finalise the classification of all border crossings.

The improved linking noted above enables a more accurate classification of travellers as migrants or non-migrants. There is no change to the model that classifies border crossings for provisional migration estimates; simply an improvement to the ongoing linking of border crossings.

For example, arrivals that are not linked to a subsequent departure are most likely to be travellers who have stayed in New Zealand and are therefore classified as a ‘migrant arrival’. Conversely, departures that are not linked to a subsequent arrival are most likely to be travellers who have stayed overseas and are therefore classified as a ‘migrant departure’.

“Travellers often make repeated trips into and out of New Zealand, which makes it challenging to differentiate migrants from visitors,” Mr Islam said.

“However, calculating actual travel duration is a more accurate way of measuring migration than relying on passenger card intentions.”

Fewer migrant arrivals for year ended May 2019 in latest estimates

In the year ended May 2019, there were provisionally 135,600 migrant arrivals, down 6,100 from the year ended May 2018 and down 10,900 from the year ended July 2016 peak (146,600).

Migrant departures were 89,500, up 2,700 from the previous year and up 6,800 from the year ended July 2016.

Migrant arrivals and departures include the flows of New Zealand citizens as well as the flows of non-New Zealand citizens as both affect the population living in New Zealand.

Provisional migration estimates for year ended November 2019

Migration estimates for the year ended May 2019 are given above because these are subject to smaller month-to-month revisions than estimates for more recent periods. We can define travellers as visitors or migrants with more certainty 5-6 months after a reference period.

Some users of migration data may want to look at the most recent provisional estimates. These give a more timely indication of migration levels, although they have higher uncertainty and are therefore subject to larger month-to-month revisions than provisional estimates for earlier periods.

Provisional estimates for the year ended November 2019:

  • migrant arrivals – 137,000 (± 1,400)
  • migrant departures – 95,500 (± 1,300)
  • net migration gain – 41,500 (± 1,600).

The uncertainty reflects the number of migrant outcomes that need to be modelled, compared with those that can be definitively classified according to the 12/16-month rule.

Impact on population estimates

Updates to migration estimates are reflected in regular updates to national and subnational population estimates. National population estimates: At 31 December 2019 will be released on 18 February 2020 and, as usual, will include revisions to the previous six quarters to reflect revised migration estimates.

/Stats NZ Public Release. View in full here.