Pressure Points Part 3: China in the Pacific and Indian oceans examines China’s expanding defence and security presence beyond the First Island Chain and across the Southwest Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and Australia’s maritime approaches over the last decade. Using a range of tools, including a growing bluewater navy, paramilitary forces and localised policing cooperation arrangements, China ‘is steadily building a pattern of access, presence and influence that’s reshaping regional security dynamics.’ China’s long-term strategy of normalisation aims to create a region in which ‘its access is expected, and its influence is embedded.’
To achieve this, China has adopted distinct approaches in the Southwest Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the immediate vicinity of Australia and New Zealand.
In the Southwest Pacific, a strategic rather than an economic lens predominates. China’s military footprint is limited, and its naval presence has until recently foregrounded non-combat forces: hospital ships, training vessels and goodwill port calls. Policing cooperation has taken the central position in a broader security posture—including recent demonstrations of hard power—which aims to further isolate Taiwan and to diminish the region’s strategic potential for the US in the event of a major conflict.
In the Indian Ocean, China’s deep energy dependence on the Middle East drove the initial establishment of a PLA Navy capability for sustained far-seas operations. China’s consolidation over the past decade has evolved that from counter-piracy missions to submarine deployments, a base at Djibouti base in 2017, exercises with Pakistan and Sri Lanka; increased arms sales, research vessel activity and dual-use infrastructure at Gwadar and Hambantota.
In Australia’s maritime approaches, Canberra and Wellington have seen China’s security engagement undergo a fundamental shift—from a confidence-building approach to a more aggressive stance. Over the course of Xi Jinping’s presidency, China’s actions in the near region have seen sustained efforts to normalise proximity and demonstrate high-end combat power.
The changing regional security circumstances also open strategic opportunities for the democratic partners of the region, which are detailed in the report.
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