With less than a month to go before the Victorian state election, the media and community focus has been fixed on the potential make up of the lower house of the new parliament. This is understandable. The party, or parties, that win a majority of seats in the chamber form government.
Author
- Zareh Ghazarian
Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations, School of Social Sciences, Monash University
But the upper house in the state is also important. In Victoria, the Legislative Council has many of the same powers as the Legislative Assembly. For example, the Legislative Council can initiate, as well as reject, bills. The upper house cannot, however, introduce bills that seek to spend money, nor can it reject the government’s budget . And a bill must be approved by both chambers of parliament to become law.
The powers of the Victorian upper house mean that, while it may not be able to block government spending, it can have a major impact on the policies of government.
The latest polling has the Coalition on track to win majority government – although there is much that can still change in the final weeks before polling day.
The race in the Upper House promises to be a tighter affair. A recent Morgan poll gave the Coalition 12 of the 40 upper house seats, Labor ten, the Greens eight and One Nation six, with four seats undecided. This will mean that whoever forms government will have to negotiate with the upper house to get its legislation through.
The challenge in identifying the makeup of the Legislative Council is linked to the voting system used in the chamber.
The Victorian Legislative Council in numbers
The Victorian upper house was reformed in 2003. A major change introduced back then was the creation of eight large regions, each represented by five MPs. Each of these upper house regions covers 11 lower house districts .
The electoral system used to determine who wins upper house representation is very different from that used in the Legislative Assembly. In the lower house, a candidate must win 50% +1 of all eligible votes. In the upper house, which uses proportional representation, a candidate must win about 16.7% of the region-wide vote.
Until the 2022 state election, Victorians could indicate their first preference on the ballot paper by placing a “1” next to their preferred party above the black line.
This was very similar to the system used in the Australian Senate until 2016. By indicating their first preference only on the ballot paper, the preferences of voters would flow to all candidates according to what their party of choice had decided.
This had serious implications for many candidates, as preferences were crucial in determining their ability to win a seat. In the 2022 election, for instance, the Animal Justice Party was able to win a seat in the Northern Victorian Region, even though it won just 1.5% of the primary vote . Similarly, One Nation was able to win a seat in the Northern Victorian Region despite its candidate, Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell, winning just 3.7% of the primary vote.
These results, and reports of potentially misleading names of parties, precipitated changes to the voting system in the upper house in 2026. Now, Victorians will have to preference at least five parties above the line. Those voting below the line will continue to have to also preference at least five candidates.
This approach is expected to limit the ability of small parties to win seats through preferences.
Electoral prospects
At the previous election , Labor won 15 seats, the Coalition 12 seats, the Greens three seats, and Legalise Cannabis Victoria two seats, while Labour DLP and One Nation won one seat each.
In 2026, like previous elections, it seems unlikely a major party will gain a majority in the upper house.
According to recent polls , the Coalition’s primary vote is in the low 30% range, Labor’s is mid-20s, while One Nation is in the low-20s with the Greens in the mid-teens.
If these results were to be replicated across each region, the Coalition, Labor and One Nation parties would be guaranteed at least one seat each in each region, as their primary vote is above the quota (16.7%) required to win a seat.
Determining the winner for each of the two remaining seats in each district will be influenced by the strength of each party’s primary vote as well as the preferences determined by voters.
In any case, if the election results aligned with opinion polls, it would be highly likely One Nation or the Greens could hold the balance of power in the upper house. As such, the parties would be able to wield significant power and influence over the next government’s policies.
The change in the electoral system means Victorians arguably have more power over where their preferences go in 2026 than in previous upper house elections. They will use this ability to ultimately determine who wins representation and takes on the significant power to determine policy outcomes for the future of the state.
