Iran has become a test of Donald Trump’s credibility at home as well as his power abroad.
Author
- Arash Beidollahkhani
Research Fellow at the Global Development Institute, University of Manchester
The war and rising fuel prices contributed to the Republican defeat in the recent congressional elections. That gives the president a stronger political reason to find an ending to the conflict that he can present as a success.
On November 9, President Trump said he wanted to keep the war at “status quo” , but warned that American forces were “locked and loaded” should circumstances change.
One mountain near Iran’s main nuclear complex sits at the centre of America’s conundrum. Trump has repeatedly threatened Pickaxe Mountain, saying in October that the US could destroy it quickly. The gap between that promise and what a strike could achieve deserves attention.
Pickaxe Mountain is the English nickname for Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, a 1,600m tall (5,200ft) peak located around 1 mile south of the Natanz nuclear complex in central Iran. Experts believe it hosts a nuclear facility, but it is thought to be much deeper than Natanz. According to experts, the complex is located between 80m and 100m underground. This makes it more difficult to destroy than other sites associated with Tehran’s nuclear programme.
The decision to build a complex at Pickaxe Mountain followed a series of explosions across Iran in 2020. These damaged alleged missile sites , power plants and other facilities. The causes remain unclear.
One blast , on July 2, 2020, damaged a workshop at the Natanz nuclear complex that was used for assembling centrifuges. These centrifuges are containers used to produce enriched uranium. The uranium can be used for civilian nuclear power plants, but is also a component in nuclear weapons. In September of that year, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said the workshop’s replacement would be built “in the heart” of Pickaxe Mountain.
The Trump administration’s concern is that Pickaxe Mountain could shelter centrifuges capable of enriching uranium to weapons grade levels. Analysts also suggest that the underground complex could accommodate other work related to developing a nuclear weapon.
Newspaper reports citing Israeli intelligence assessments claim that Iran moved centrifuges and related equipment into its tunnels. The mountain could also provide a protected base for rebuilding centrifuge production damaged in earlier attacks.
What is inside and how close it is to becoming operational remain publicly unverified. Satellite photographs show continued construction and reinforced entrances.
An assessment in September by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (a thinktank based in the US) found an increased level of activity at Pickaxe Mountain during 2026. Analysts have not been able to confirm that centrifuges have been moved there, however.
Calls for nuclear weapons and a nuclear test in Iranian media and political circles, alongside speculation about Mojtaba Khamenei’s willingness to approve a shift towards nuclear deterrence, have added to concerns about the site.
However, the images alone cannot establish that enrichment or bomb making is happening inside. International inspectors have never been given access, leaving the interior’s layout and contents publicly unverified.
Why is it difficult to attack?
The protection for the new facility comes from the mountain itself, which is composed of dense granite . The depth of 80-100m for the complex is an estimate drawn from external evidence; detailed plans have never been published.
America’s largest conventional bunker-buster, the GBU-57 , was used against Fordow and Natanz in June 2025. Its performance against Pickaxe Mountain remains uncertain. Figures describing penetration through earth tell us little about the same weapon’s performance through dense rock.
The Trump administration could try to interrupt access and operations without reaching the deepest halls. Public military assessments discuss attacks on entrances and external infrastructure. Such damage could delay work, and repeated attacks could complicate repairs. Equipment buried deeper might survive.
This creates a problem after the bombing stops. Satellite images can reveal a collapsed entrance. Establishing what happened far underground is much harder. A president could announce a successful operation while inspectors and analysts remain unable to verify its effect on Iran’s capabilities.
Could a strike give Trump an exit?
Pickaxe Mountain offers Trump a target around which he could build a victory speech. After a politically costly war, a strike would let him claim that he had dealt with Iran’s remaining nuclear threat and could bring American operations to an end: damage the facility, declare victory and withdraw .
That calculation is also being discussed inside Iran. One possible course would be to let Trump claim victory and avoid retaliation so the war could end . Claims that the Trump administration had requested such an arrangement have circulated . Iran’s foreign ministry, however, dismissed them and insisted that any attack would receive a response .
There could be an opportunity here for Tehran. If underground equipment survived and Trump accepted visible damage as grounds to leave, Iran could preserve capabilities while allowing the White House to claim success. The mountain could become a useful lure.
Yet evidence that Iran has deliberately prepared such an outcome remains thin: construction began years before this confrontation. Reinforcing the site also serves the straightforward purpose of protecting it.
Even a spectacular strike would leave the confrontation over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz unresolved. The danger is that each side expects the other to stop. Trump could assume a limited attack would close the confrontation; Tehran could decide that answering it was essential to its credibility.
Meanwhile, damage visible from space would leave unanswered questions about equipment and material underground. Ending the confrontation would still require an agreement covering nuclear inspections, shipping through Hormuz, sanctions on Iran and the wider disputes keeping the conflict alive.
