International Migration 14 March

International migration statistics give the latest outcomes-based measure of migration, which includes estimates of migrants entering or leaving New Zealand.

Key facts

Annual migration
Latest revisions
Annual migration by citizenship
Monthly migration
Migration with Australia – year ended June 2023
Resumption of seasonally adjusted and trend series

Annual migration

Provisional estimates for the January 2024 year compared with the January 2023 year were:

• migrant arrivals: 257,200 (± 1,800), up 91 percent
• migrant departures: 123,300 (± 1,200), up 30 percent
• annual net migration: gain of 133,800 (± 2,200), compared with a net gain of 39,100 (± 200).

The 257,200 migrant arrivals and 123,300 migrant departures in the January 2024 year are, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period.

The long-term average for January years (pre-COVID 2002-2019) is 118,700 migrant arrivals and 91,700 migrant departures.

Migrants are people changing their country of residence, regardless of their country of citizenship or visa status. A 12-month threshold is used to classify migrants from non-migrants, aligned with international guidelines on measuring migration.

Latest revisions

Migration estimates from October 2022 are provisional and subject to revision because it is not yet known whether some travellers are migrants or non-migrants.

This month saw upward revisions to most provisional monthly and annual estimates of net migration, driven by downward revisions of migrant departures for the months of November and December 2023. The downward revisions partly reflect people living in New Zealand who departed in those months, and arrived back in New Zealand during January and February 2024, reducing their probability of being migrant departures.

Migrant departures for December 2023 were revised down by 6,400, driven by citizens of New Zealand (down 2,600) and China (down 1,400). Migrant departures for November 2023 were revised down by 3,500, driven by citizens of China (down 1,400) and New Zealand (down 800).

China removed its pandemic quarantine rules for arrivals and permitted citizens to travel overseas from January 2023. The number of flights between China and New Zealand progressively increased through 2023.

Why migration estimates change has more information.

We encourage customers to make their own judgement on whether to use provisional migration estimates for the latest months, which have higher uncertainty, or provisional migration estimates for older months, which have lower uncertainty. Annual arrival and departure estimates are subject to notably less revision at five to six months after the reference period.

Annual migration by citizenship

The provisional net migration gain of 133,800 in the January 2024 year was made up of a net gain of 180,700 non-New Zealand citizens, which more than offset a net migration loss of 46,900 New Zealand citizens.

Text alternative for International migration estimates (provisional), Year ended January 2024

For migrant arrivals in the January 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 51,000 (± 700) arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• Philippines: 36,500 (± 400)
• China: 28,800 (± 400)
• New Zealand: 27,300 (± 500)
• Fiji: 11,300 (± 300)
• South Africa: 8,700 (± 200)
• United Kingdom: 7,600 (± 200)
• Sri Lanka: 7,100 (± 100)
• Viet Nam: 5,700 (± 100).

For migrant departures in the January 2024 year, New Zealand citizens were the largest group, with 74,200 (± 900) departures. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• China: 8,700 (± 200)
• India: 5,900 (± 300)
• Australia: 4,800 (± 200)
• United Kingdom: 4,500 (± 100)
• United States: 2,900 (± 100).

Citizens of India, the Philippines, China, Fiji, and South Africa drove net migration gains in the January 2024 year. Country of citizenship is the nationality of passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.

The January 2024 year provisionally saw one annual record for non-New Zealand citizens:

• 229,800 migrant arrivals, exceeding the previous record before 2023, which was 138,300 in the March 2020 year.

For non-New Zealand citizens, the net migration gain of 180,700 in the January 2024 year compares with a net migration gain of 65,000 in the January 2023 year. It is also above the long-term average for January years (pre-COVID 2002-2019) of 47,500 a year.

The January 2024 year provisionally saw two annual records for New Zealand citizens:

• 74,200 migrant departures, exceeding the previous record of 72,400 in the February 2012 year.
• net migration loss of 46,900, exceeding the previous record before 2023, which was 44,400 in the February 2012 year.

The average annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 27,100 in the January years 2002-2013, and 7,500 in the January years 2014-2019.

Monthly migration

Provisional estimates for January 2024 compared with January 2023 were:

• migrant arrivals: 21,200 (± 1,000), up 15 percent
• migrant departures: 15,900 (± 900), up 102 percent
• monthly net migration: gain of 5,300 (± 1,400), compared with a net gain of 10,600 (± 200).

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration with Australia – year ended June 2023

There was a provisional net migration loss of 21,500 people to Australia in the year ended June 2023. This was made up of 19,100 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, and 40,600 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.

Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia. This averaged nearly 30,000 a year during 2004-2013, and about 3,000 a year during 2014-2019.

The provisional net migration loss to Australia in the year ended June 2023 was made up of a net loss of 21,460 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 40 non-New Zealand citizens. This compares with a net migration loss to Australia of 7,700 in the year ended June 2022, made up of a net loss of 6,200 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 1,500 non-New Zealand citizens.

In the June 2023 year, 53 percent of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia.

Net migration loss to Australia in 2022 (published in July 2023 and based on provisional data to December 2022) has more information.

These net migration estimates draw on two Infoshare series (select ‘Tourism’, then ‘International Travel and Migration – ITM’):

• Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type, and CLPR, 12/16-month rule (Quarterly) – this uses Stats NZ monthly estimates currently available to January 2024.
• Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia by CLPR, citizenship, and birthplace (Quarterly) – this uses Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly estimates currently available to June 2023. Data for the September 2023 quarter will be available in mid-March 2024.

As the country of last previous residence (CLPR) of migrants arriving in New Zealand and Australia is not always known, an allowance for non-response to the CLPR question on both New Zealand and Australian arrival cards has been made.

Resumption of seasonally adjusted and trend series

In October 2023 we resumed the publication of seasonally adjusted and trend series for international migration with the release of August 2023 data.

Methodology for bridging seasonally adjusted international travel and migration series impacted by COVID-19 has more information.

A further methodological change has been implemented this month to cope with the impact of the pandemic. Seasonally adjusted and trend series up to February 2020 will no longer be revised, to avoid any unintended revisions in the historical series caused by recent data.

Provisional migration estimates

The comparisons between the January 2024 and 2023 months and years use the latest provisional estimates for each period.

The provisional estimates have 95 percent confidence intervals (±) beside them – the wider the interval, the greater the uncertainty about the estimate. However, these intervals reflect the model uncertainty, not the extent of future revisions to provisional data.

Migration estimates in more recent months have greater uncertainty and are therefore subject to larger revisions than estimates for earlier periods.

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration data transformation has more information about the migration estimates, including the 12/16-month rule and a monthly summary of the number of border movements, the number requiring modelling as migrants or non-migrants, and the history of revisions to migration estimates.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017-January 2024 also has more information.

Why migration estimates change

The outcomes-based measure of migration with provisional and final estimates is the official way we measure migration in New Zealand.

International migration uses new official measure has more information.

To classify a border crossing as a migrant movement, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, and it takes 17 months before final migration estimates are available, using the 12/16-month rule.

To produce timely results, we use a statistical model to produce provisional migration estimates. As new data becomes available each month, the provisional migration model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate. This causes shifts in the estimated number of migrant arrivals and migrant departures, and thus, changes in the net migration estimates.

Early and provisional international travel data

International travel (provisional) is updated each week with provisional international travel statistics to facilitate analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact on New Zealand’s inbound and outbound tourism sectors. This includes:

• weekly travel data for short-term overseas visitor and New Zealand-resident arrivals
• arrivals and departures data based solely on border crossings into and out of New Zealand
• stock estimates of visitors in New Zealand and New Zealand residents travelling overseas, based on arrivals and departures.

COVID-19 data portal also has summarised daily data.

Text alternative for International migration estimates (provisional), year ended January 2024:

The diagram shows outcomes-based (provisional) estimates of migration, by citizenship (New Zealand or non-New Zealand) for the year ended January 2024. Overall, net migration is 133,800, made up of a net loss of 46,900 NZ citizens (based on 27,300 migrant arrivals, a 0 percent increase on the year ended January 2023, and 74,200 migrant departures, a 39 percent increase) and a net gain of 180,700 non-NZ citizens (based on 229,800 migrant arrivals, a 115 percent increase on the year ended January 2023, and 49,100 migrant departures, a 17 percent increase). Estimates are provisional as of 14 March 2024.

More data

Use Infoshare to access time-series data for international travel and migration:

Subject category: Tourism
Group: International travel and migration – ITM

Definitions and metadata

International migration – DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce international travel and migration statistics.

International migration concepts – DataInfo+ gives definitions of terms used in this release.

Subnational short-term NZ-resident arrivals – DataInfo+ gives methodology for determining the New Zealand-location information in short-term New Zealand-resident arrival records.

Technical enquiries

Bridget Snodgrass
03 964 8317
[email protected]

ISSN 2624-2702

Next release

International migration: February 2024 will be released on 15 April 2024.