International migration 15 February

International migration statistics give the latest outcomes-based measure of migration, which includes estimates of migrants entering or leaving New Zealand.

Key facts

Annual migration
Annual migration by citizenship
Monthly migration
Migration with Australia – year ended June 2023
Resumption of seasonally adjusted and trend series

Annual migration

Provisional estimates for the December 2023 year compared with the December 2022 year were:

• migrant arrivals: 254,700 (± 2,100), up 114 percent
• migrant departures: 128,700 (± 1,500), up 36 percent
• annual net migration: gain of 126,000 (± 2,600), compared with a net gain of 24,800 (± 200).

The 254,700 migrant arrivals and 128,700 migrant departures in the December 2023 year are, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period.

The long-term average for December years (pre-COVID 2002-2019) is 121,300 migrant arrivals and 92,300 migrant departures.

Migration estimates from September 2022 are provisional and subject to revision because it is not yet known whether some travellers are migrants or non-migrants.

Why migration estimates change has more information.

Migrants are people changing their country of residence, regardless of their country of citizenship or visa status. A 12-month threshold is used to classify migrants from non-migrants, aligned with international guidelines on measuring migration.

Annual migration by citizenship

For migrant arrivals in the December 2023 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 50,800 (± 700) arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• Philippines: 36,200 (± 400)
• New Zealand: 27,800 (± 600)
• China: 26,900 (± 500)
• Fiji: 11,100 (± 300)
• South Africa: 8,900 (± 200)
• United Kingdom: 7,400 (± 200)
• Sri Lanka: 6,900 (± 100)
• Australia: 6,700 (± 400).

For migrant departures in the December 2023 year, New Zealand citizens were the largest group, with 74,800 (± 1,000) departures. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• China: 11,200 (± 300)
• India: 5,900 (± 300)
• Australia: 4,700 (± 200)
• United Kingdom: 4,600 (± 100)
• United States: 3,000 (± 100).

Citizens of India, the Philippines, China, Fiji, and South Africa drove net migration gains in the December 2023 year. Country of citizenship is the nationality of passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.

The provisional net migration gain of 126,000 in the November 2023 year was made up of a net gain of 173,000 non-New Zealand citizens, which more than offset a net migration loss of 47,000 New Zealand citizens.

The December 2023 year provisionally saw one annual record for non-New Zealand citizens:

• 226,900 migrant arrivals, exceeding the previous record before 2023, which was 138,300 in the March 2020 year.

For non-New Zealand citizens, the net migration gain of 173,000 in the December 2023 year compares with a net migration gain of 49,900 in the December 2022 year. It is also above the long-term average for December years (pre-COVID 2002-2019) of 48,100 a year.

The December 2023 year provisionally saw two annual records for New Zealand citizens:

• 74,800 migrant departures, exceeding the previous record of 72,400 in the February 2012 year.
• net migration loss of 47,000, exceeding the previous record before 2023, which was 44,400 in the February 2012 year.

The average annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 26,600 in the December years 2002-2013, and 4,000 in the December years 2014-2019.

Monthly migration

Provisional estimates for December 2023 compared with December 2022 were:

• migrant arrivals: 22,800 (± 1,000), up 27 percent
• migrant departures: 20,400 (± 1,000), up 126 percent
• monthly net migration: gain of 2,400 (± 1,300), compared with a net gain of 8,900 (± 200).

Provisional estimates of migrant departures in the November 2023 and December 2023 months are high relative to preceding months. As new data becomes available in subsequent months, the migration model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate. Initial migration estimates are subject to larger revisions than estimates for earlier months.

The initial estimate of migrant departures in November 2023 (published 19 January 2024) revised down with this release (published 15 February 2024). The downward revision was driven by citizens of New Zealand, China, India, and the Philippines, reflecting the return to New Zealand of some travellers in January 2024 who had departed in November 2023.

We encourage customers to make their own judgement on whether to use provisional migration estimates for the latest months, which have higher uncertainty, or provisional migration estimates for older months, which have lower uncertainty.

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration with Australia – year ended June 2023

There was a provisional net migration loss of 21,500 people to Australia in the year ended June 2023. This was made up of 19,100 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, and 40,600 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.

Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia. This averaged nearly 30,000 a year during 2004-2013, and about 3,000 a year during 2014-2019.

The provisional net migration loss to Australia in the year ended June 2023 was made up of a net loss of 21,400 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 20 non-New Zealand citizens. This compares with a net migration loss to Australia of 7,700 in the year ended June 2022, made up of a net loss of 6,200 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 1,500 non-New Zealand citizens.

In the June 2023 year, 53 percent of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia.

Net migration loss to Australia in 2022 (published in July 2023 and based on provisional data to December 2022) has more information.

These net migration estimates draw on two Infoshare series (select ‘Tourism’, then ‘International Travel and Migration – ITM’):

• Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type, and CLPR, 12/16-month rule (Quarterly) – this uses Stats NZ monthly estimates currently available to December 2023.
• Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia by CLPR, citizenship, and birthplace (Quarterly) – this uses Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly estimates currently available to June 2023. Data for the September 2023 quarter will be available in mid-March 2024.

As the country of last previous residence (CLPR) of migrants arriving in New Zealand and Australia is not always known, an allowance for non-response to the CLPR question on both New Zealand and Australian arrival cards has been made.

Resumption of seasonally adjusted and trend series

With the release of August 2023 data in October 2023, we have resumed the publication of seasonally adjusted and trend series for international migration.

Methodology for bridging seasonally adjusted international travel and migration series impacted by COVID-19 has more information.

Provisional migration estimates

The comparisons between the December 2023 and 2022 months and years use the latest provisional estimates for each period.

The provisional estimates have 95 percent confidence intervals (±) beside them – the wider the interval, the greater the uncertainty about the estimate. However, these intervals reflect the model uncertainty, not the extent of future revisions to provisional data.

Migration estimates in more recent months have greater uncertainty and are therefore subject to larger revisions than estimates for earlier periods.

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration data transformation has more information about the migration estimates, including the 12/16-month rule and a monthly summary of the number of border movements, the number requiring modelling as migrants or non-migrants, and the history of revisions to migration estimates.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017-December 2023 also has more information.

Why migration estimates change

The outcomes-based measure of migration with provisional and final estimates is the official way we measure migration in New Zealand.

International migration uses new official measure has more information.

To classify a border crossing as a migrant movement, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, and it takes 17 months before final migration estimates are available, using the 12/16-month rule.

To produce timely results, we use a statistical model to produce provisional migration estimates. As new data becomes available each month, the provisional migration model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate. This causes shifts in the estimated number of migrant arrivals and migrant departures, and thus, changes in the net migration estimates.

Early and provisional international travel data 

International travel (provisional) is updated each week with provisional international travel statistics to facilitate analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact on New Zealand’s inbound and outbound tourism sectors. This includes:

• weekly travel data for short-term overseas visitor and New Zealand-resident arrivals
• arrivals and departures data based solely on border crossings into and out of New Zealand
• stock estimates of visitors in New Zealand and New Zealand residents travelling overseas, based on arrivals and departures.

COVID-19 data portal is also being updated daily with provisional daily border-crossing data.

More data

Use Infoshare to access time-series data for international travel and migration:

Subject category: Tourism
Group: International travel and migration – ITM

Definitions and metadata

International migration – DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce international travel and migration statistics.

International migration concepts – DataInfo+ gives definitions of terms used in this release.

Subnational short-term NZ-resident arrivals – DataInfo+ gives methodology for determining the New Zealand-location information in short-term New Zealand-resident arrival records.

Technical enquiries

Bridget Snodgrass
03 964 8317
[email protected]

ISSN 2624-2702

Next release

International migration: January 2024 will be released on 14 March 2024.