While the world’s attention is fixated on the US blockade of Iranian ports and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Russia has been subjecting Ukraine to a blockade of its own in the Black Sea, imperilling Ukraine’s summer grain harvest.
Author
- Iryna Skubii
Mykola Zerov Fellow in Ukrainian Studies, Senior Research Fellow, School of Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of Melbourne
Ukraine is the world’s largest exporter of sunflower seeds and sunflower oil (50% of the global supply), the third-largest exporter of barley (18%), the fourth-largest for corn (16%), and the fifth-largest for wheat (12%).
Russian forces have struck at least 50 Ukrainian cargo ships since June, killing more than 30 civilians. This included a strike on a ship off the coast of Odesa on July 19, which killed ten people onboard . After this attack, commercial ships stopped travelling to Ukrainian seaports.
Ukraine has retaliated with its own attacks on Russia’s Black Sea ports, including one this week on two major grain terminals in the city of Novorossiysk , which is home to Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet.
Early Friday, Reuters reported that Ukraine has offered Russia a deal to halt attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, as concerns for global grain supplies begin to mount.
Blow to Ukrainian farmers
More than 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural products are exported via Black Sea ports. The blockade of Ukraine’s ports has already been devastating for the country’s farmers.
According to one economist, the blockade could cost the country around 1-1.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of the year.
Ukraine expects a grain harvest of about 60 million tonnes this year . But Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky said the grain export forecast will only be around 38-40 million tonnes for the 2026-27 fiscal year, a 12% drop from previous estimates.
The delays in exports could cause a domino effect. Once this year’s harvest is completed in the next few weeks, it will be impossible to find enough storage facilities for the crops. Delays in exports will also mean broken contracts with foreign buyers. This will mean less money going to farmers and delays in tax payments to the government.
Beyond causing damage to the Ukrainian state and local budgets, human rights groups have accused Russia of aiming to supplant Ukraine as the global leader in many agricultural exports – this is a key strategy behind its actions.
Russian attempts to weaponise Ukraine’s food exports also have historical parallels. After Ukraine became part of the Soviet Union in the 1920s, Soviet leaders used food as a political and economic weapon to subjugate Ukraine’s population, causing the mass famine in 1932-33 known as the Holodomor .
Alternative routes to market
The current situation is similar to the blockade Russia imposed on Ukrainian ports at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Back then, the United Nations and Turkey were able to broker a temporary deal between Ukraine and Russia, the Black Sea Grain Initiative , to allow shipping to resume. Russia pulled out of the deal a year later.
The situation is not as critical as it was then, at least not yet. Ukraine’s agricultural sector has some flexibility to withstand the current crisis.
To support Ukrainian farmers in response to the renewed blockade, Ukraine’s government has approved an emergency support package and is seeking additional support from the European Commission .
Also, this week, the Ukrainian government held negotiations with Poland on expanding alternative export routes. However, exporting grain through Poland led to protests by Polish farmers in 2023 who were concerned about cheaper Ukrainian grain flooding the Polish market. Poland subsequently imposed a ban on Ukrainian grain.
Another option is to ship exports through the Romanian port of Constanța , as well as through Hungary and Moldova. Moldova said this week it would allow 600,000 tonnes of Ukrainian grain to transit through its country by the end of the year.
Moving grain by rail or road, though, is much more expensive than by sea. Low water levels on the Danube River are also posing a problem.
The ball now appears to be in Russia’s court, with Ukraine’s offer of a truce on Black Sea attacks. Russia’s own grain exports could fall by more than half in August compared to previous years, due to disruptions in the Black and Azov seas.
The naval blockade is already causing significant disruptions to global markets, as well. If Russia does not agree, the situation will become much more critical – not only for Ukraine but also regional and global food security.
