GDP Growth – First quarter of 2022, OECD

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23 May 2022 – In the first quarter of 2022, gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD rose by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter according to provisional estimates, a sharp slowdown compared with the 1.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 2021 (Figure 1).

In the G7, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth turned negative in Q1 2022, falling by 0.1% compared with an increase of 1.2% in Q4 2021. The G7 result in the first quarter of 2022 reflects negative GDP growth in the United States (minus 0.4%), Italy (minus 0.2%) and Japan (minus 0.2%), as well as zero growth in France and weaker positive growth in the United Kingdom (0.8%) and Canada (1.4%) than in the previous quarter.Germany was the only G7 country where the pace of growth increased, with GDP growth of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2022 compared with a contraction of 0.3% in the previous quarter.

Four G7 countries have already published preliminary detailed estimates, allowing for an analysis of the factors that weighed on GDP growth in the first quarter of 2022. Changes in net trade (exports minus imports), partly due to supply chain disruptions, were the main factor behind the slower or negative GDP growth recorded in the United Kingdom,the United States and Japan. In France, changes in net trade and stockbuilding provided a positive contribution but domestic demand dragged down GDP growth, reflecting a contraction of private consumption. By contrast, domestic demand rose in the United Kingdom and United States. Stockbuilding made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the United Kingdom, but destocking reduced growth in the United States.

Among other OECD countries for which data are available for the first quarter of 2022, Portugal and Austria recorded the highest increases in GDP compared with the previous quarter (2.6% and 2.5% respectively), followed by Hungary and Latvia (2.1% in both countries). Decreases were recorded in Norway (minus 1.0%), Chile (minus 0.8%), Costa Rica (minus 0.5%), Israel and Sweden (minus 0.4% in both countries) and Denmark (minus 0.1%).

The United Kingdom exceeded its pre-pandemic (Q4 2019) level of GDP for the first time in Q1 2022, by 0.7%. In the United States, France and Canada, GDP remained higher than before the pandemic; these countries exceeded their Q4 2019 GDP levels for the first time in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2021 respectively. However, in Germany, Italy and Japan,GDP was still below pre-pandemic levels (by 1.0%, 0.4% and 0.7% respectively) in Q1 2022 (Figure 2).

Link to underlying data – Source: Quarterly National Accounts: Quarterly growth rates of real GDP

Gross domestic product (change since Q4 2019) Cumulative growth  rate (percentage), seasonally adjusted data

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